Re: [460] Why America is screwed
460 wrote:
This thread is interesting.
This thread is about as tortured of a discussion as they get. Everyone's spouting viewpoints but no one has offered anything objective. Videos from some fucknut on youtube don't count as research, people... they don't count for shit, unless you can explain why the author isn't more retarded than bag of bricks. Hey, I could post a video explaining, "Aliens invaded your mom's vagina." Just because I link to it in a forum discussion, it doesn't mean it's smarter than using a fucking car battery as a packing weight! (hint: <--bad)
No one has even defined what they mean by, "the fed stabilizes the economy." If someone says, "Low inflation, positive growth in GDP," they're dumb, and i'm going to throw my cock at their forehead. (Yes I can hit you from here)
How about this:
relative economic stability over a given period of years is defined by the number of years of recession within that period, divided by the total number of years in that given period.
That might be a shitty definition, but it's something we can at least debate. Maybe some econ teacher out there can school me on it.
ANYWAY. I did 20 minutes of wikipedia research, and added up the number of years of recessions before and after the federal reserve was established.
My
method: I considered the period 1789 (Ratification of the constitution) until present. I divided this period into "Pre-Federal Reserve," the beginning of 1789 thru the end of 1913... and... "Post-Federal Reserve" was 1914-Present. I put the years from the wikipedia page, "List of recessions in the united states," into a spreadsheet. (
http://en.wikipedia.org/...in_the_United_States)
I considered the recession of 1913-1914 to be "Pre-Federal Reserve," because the federal reserve act was passed in LATE 1913 (according to Wikipedia.) Therefore I assume that the Federal Reserve did not help to precipitate this recession. I am not currently qualified to comment on the prolonging or foreshortening effect of the enactment of the Federal Reserve Act on the recession in progress at the time.
The Post-World-War-I Recession (of 1918) Is the first one I consider to be "Post-Federal Reserve"
I added lines for 1914 and 2010 to my spreadsheet so that the math would properly add up the numbers for the desired time period. These lines do not represent new recessions.
Results: From 1789 (Year of ratification of the constitution) until 2010, the fraction of years spent in recession was 0.346. In other words, 34.6% of the time, the country was in a recession.
Between 1789 and approximately the end of the 1914 recession, the country was in a recession 44.5% of the time.
Between 1914 and 2010, the country was in a recession 34.6% of the time.
Over our country's history, we have had an average interval of 3.03 years between recessions.
Before the federal reserve, we had an average interval of 2.33 years between recessions.
After the federal reserve, we had an average interval of 4.16 years between recessions.
Discussion... These calculations support the hypothesis that, since the inception of the federal reserve, our country has spent less time in recession, and recessions have been of shorter average duration.
The Federal Reserve was not the only government bank the government ever enacted, but prior ones were all pretty fucking wimply. If you disagree, that's awesome, but show your fucking data. By my relative definition of stability, the post-Fed era was more stable than the pre-Fed era. This is further supported by the observation that recessions are further apart in the post-Federal Reserve era.
What's that, someone asks? "OK, you mention the time between recessions, but what about the duration of each recession? huh, smart guy?"
WHACK!! That "whack" was the sound of my dick hitting you in your eyeball from across the internet. This question is basically answered by the way I defined "relative stability."
Ok, I probably fucked some shit up, and overlooked some important things. I expect you bitches to call me out on it. Here's a spreadsheet of my work. It's in OpenOffice format, but Excel can probably import it. (Google Docs certainly can)
Have fun.