theories on this years grim stats?
just curious if anyone has any thoughts as to why this was such a black year... i understand we assume a lot of risk in our sports, but this year seams a bit dismal here at the end. Basejumper.com - archive
General BASE
Re: [gixxer1k] theories on this years grim stats?
It's called statistics. When number of "events" (deaths) per "bucket" (year) is small, fluctuations are relatively big. These fluctuations are "perfectly normal" (if there's such a thing when we talk about people dying). Look, for example, at statistics of big numbers, for example, car accident deaths in US:
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2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994
34,017 37,435 38,648 39,252 38,444 38,477 38,491 37,862 37,526 37,140 37,107 37,324 37,494 37,241 36,254
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Relatively speaking, there's not much of fluctuation and there are no "dismal" years.
When BASE fatalities come to this level, there'll be no "dismal" years as well. Since Earth's population is growing exponentially and BASE popularity is growing exponentially, I predict that around 2100 (+/-) there will be no dismal years, and there will be no BASE Fatality List as nobody can read all of it in their lifetime.
Re: [gixxer1k] theories on this years grim stats?
more jumpers then ever before means more damage ... http://www.blincmagazine.com/forum/wiki/Fatality_Statistics
try this its a shitload of statistics
hopefully next year it will be safer..
gixxer1k wrote:
just curious if anyone has any thoughts as to why this was such a black year... i understand we assume a lot of risk in our sports, but this year seams a bit dismal here at the end.
Re: [bodyguard] theories on this years grim stats?
I believe accident rate act like big balloons with valves. The pressure is building up, and it release, for then have some time to build up again. We are talking about the need for progress, and every time the jumpers who take a new direction have shown it is possible, it is just a matter of time before jumpers want to copy their "style", or go their own way, accepting more risk. The present jumpers who know the jumpers who is "falling" off, chills off a bit or quit. Then a new wave with new jumpers coming to the arena, young and fresh inventing it all over again. The last sentence not necessary true, since a lot of experienced jumpers is on the list this year, as every year. This year I have met half of them who made the list, it is a small world out there.
Re: [434] theories on this years grim stats?
this year isn't any different than year before... it is in the frame of expected number of fatalities according to statistics...
Re: [robibird] theories on this years grim stats?
Fingers crossed no body else goes in before christmas , take care out there guys !!
RIP Edgar Kraus 4 years on the 27th Dec
Re: [434] theories on this years grim stats?
434 wrote:
I believe accident rate act like big balloons with valves. The pressure is building up, and it release, for then have some time to build up again. We are talking about the need for progress, and every time the jumpers who take a new direction have shown it is possible, it is just a matter of time before jumpers want to copy their "style", or go their own way, accepting more risk. The present jumpers who know the jumpers who is "falling" off, chills off a bit or quit. Then a new wave with new jumpers coming to the arena, young and fresh inventing it all over again. The last sentence not necessary true, since a lot of experienced jumpers is on the list this year, as every year.
This year I have met half of them who made the list, it is a small world out there.
i think i agree with this one the most, due to the fact that most of those who have gone in are highly qualified people who have been doing it for so long, this takes them out of the whole "more people who do it makes more chance for something to go wrong" however i totally disagree that this year is no different than any other, 2007 was pretty bad too, but in general it is fairly tame. the whole push it bubble makes perfect sense though!
Re: [bodyguard] theories on this years grim stats?
bodyguard wrote:
more jumpers then ever before means more damage ...
http://www.blincmagazine.com/forum/wiki/Fatality_Statistics
try this its a shitload of statistics
hopefully next year it will be safer..
gixxer1k wrote:
just curious if anyone has any thoughts as to why this was such a black year... i understand we assume a lot of risk in our sports, but this year seams a bit dismal here at the end.
wow man! great link!!!
Re: [yuri_base] theories on this years grim stats?
You can't accurately apply statistics across the board here. Of course you can say that statistically base jumping or even skydiving is safer that driving a car, the reason being that many many millions of people drive every day, while relatively few people are jumping out of or off of things. I haven't delved into it (head in the sand about all of the ugliness), but if there isn't a comprehensive report on the types of fatalities and reasons why, there should be. Kind of like the USPA puts out every year in the parachutist magazine. This type of reflection allows us to see patterns and adjust accordingly.
Just my $.02 worth, but i have to believe that a lot of the fatalities are from people pushing the limits beyond their knowledge level, or simply choosing to ignore conditions that should be red flags.
I understand that many of us on here knew people who've died personally, and i'm not trying to incite a flame session or anything. Just saying that we need to temporarily de-personalize things in order to get to root-causes of these deaths, and hopefully improve things.
Re: [thrillseek] theories on this years grim stats?
''Just my $.02 worth, but I have to believe that a lot of the fatalities are from people pushing the limits beyond their knowledge level, or simply choosing to ignore conditions that should be red flags. '' Human error - this you can not avoid as there is so many ways to make the NEW, never done before mistake.
BASE jumping is safer than ever if you look through statistics. Sound strange?! Well, think!
Every year more jumps are done and more or less about 12-15 jumpers died.
Knowing that fluctuation of people who coming and going out of BASE is faster, knowing that jumps are getting more complicated (new objects, WS terrain flying, etc..) while general level of knowledge is lower and luckily equipment better, heaving 12-15 jumpers dead is expected! Sad and hard to say though
Re: [robibird] theories on this years grim stats?
I feel that these days BASE is some what underestimated by allot of its new participants. There are more and more kids around 16 - 19 who are taking up BASE... (not to say there are not older guys out there in the same situation). Whilst they may claim to understand what they are getting themselves into... I bet they dont fully comprehend the situations they are in.
Unfortunatly from those who ive met & the vids ive seen... its all for the glory! Been able to tell your buddies at school the latest jump youve done.
I have a buddy who is just starting out in BASE, and while he is older than what ive been talking about, his background can easily be related to the younger jumpers.
He only has 76 skydives! Weather the guy has 50 or 150 skydives... I believe that this is no where near enough experience to BASE... why...
The odd sub-T lob, when it all goes well, is great... but what happens when it goes wrong? Talking with a background of 3000 skydives, this is not enough experience to know how to effectively sort out your canopy when the shit hits the fan... weather it be a malfunction, off heading or having to fly in deep breaks to get in a landing area. (This is not saying that with 3000 skydives you can sort out something that goes wrong, but we would have a way better chance than a newbe with 100 skydives).
I dont even want to get into going terminal BASE with sub 200 skydives.
People are getting too complacent & getting in the sport for the wrong reasons. With this attitude and lack of basic knowledge (canopy piloting skills, why we do this in a packjob or that on opening / exit), the list is going to be filling up quick in the next few years!
Re: [freefall80] theories on this years grim stats?
freefall80 wrote:
I feel that these days BASE is some what underestimated by allot of its new participants. There are more and more kids around 16 - 19 who are taking up BASE... (not to say there are not older guys out there in the same situation).
Whilst they may claim to understand what they are getting themselves into... I bet they dont fully comprehend the situations they are in.
You cant expect everyone out there who wants to do BASE to start by doing 3000 skydives, also im not suprised younger kids are taking up the sport life is so in your face and extreme on every level nowaday why the hell not hey, easy come, easy go is the moto most younger folk seem to live by and i cant say im any diff myself and im deff not 16-19 we all know that people "going in" and the media madness that can follow is not good for the sport and can burt exits/jump sites but who are we to tell them no , when everyone else told us no and we still did it anyway !!
Just my ramble about it !
Unfortunatly from those who ive met & the vids ive seen... its all for the glory! Been able to tell your buddies at school the latest jump youve done.
I have a buddy who is just starting out in BASE, and while he is older than what ive been talking about, his background can easily be related to the younger jumpers.
He only has 76 skydives! Weather the guy has 50 or 150 skydives... I believe that this is no where near enough experience to BASE... why...
The odd sub-T lob, when it all goes well, is great... but what happens when it goes wrong? Talking with a background of 3000 skydives, this is not enough experience to know how to effectively sort out your canopy when the shit hits the fan... weather it be a malfunction, off heading or having to fly in deep breaks to get in a landing area. (This is not saying that with 3000 skydives you can sort out something that goes wrong, but we would have a way better chance than a newbe with 100 skydives).
I dont even want to get into going terminal BASE with sub 200 skydives.
People are getting too complacent & getting in the sport for the wrong reasons. With this attitude and lack of basic knowledge (canopy piloting skills, why we do this in a packjob or that on opening / exit), the list is going to be filling up quick in the next few years!
Re: [gixxer1k] theories on this years grim stats?
Hey, what about the idea that BASE is more or less a very dangerous activity? That's why shit keeps happening!
I mean a building or a cliff doesn't know that I prepared myself or that I call myself experienced. And even if I'm sure I do everything right, there are so many high dynamic variables that nothing in this sport is sure at all.
Only success is right which you only know for sure after you landed safe.
Even if you jump a total safe 330ft bridge with a huge landing area and no pillons whilst you wrap the bridle around yourself due to some uncontrolled exit ...
And an unexpected off heading, right there where you don't need it, doesn't really make a difference between an experienced or a newbie.
It's just the circumstances who are in the flow of the jumpers reaction, leading into a positive result.
Newbies could even be better settled in a forgiving environment as they still have more luck than the old bones
Well, I have no problem accepting this sport as fucking dangerous. Nothing to deny on.
And so I accept the accompaning incidents.
I just try to keep my ass dry by selecting what I do. But I won't open this parallel universe now as I could talk for hours ...
And hopefully I never have to proof what I just said some sentences above!
3 times knock on wood
My 2 eurocents on that
M.