Basejumper.com - archive

Can someone help me.
I really want to know where the numbers between 710 and 730 intersect years wise. I am responding to a report.
Take care,
space

 

Thanks.
Please read the report linked to in the link and the comments at the bottom.
http://observers.france24.com/en/content/20090825-base-jumping-first-requirement-insanity-wingsuit
Take care,
space

A couple of years ago I analyzed BFL data and came to conclusion that since late 80s the rate of fatalities remained about the same, 1:11 if you take the # of fatalities to date to highest BASE number to date. (about 1:10 as of now: highest BASE # is about 1350, fatalities - 134)
http://www.basejumper.com/cgi-bin/forum/gforum.cgi?post=2291880#2291880

By running a poll, a ratio of total # of BASE jumpers to jumpers with BASE numbers was estimated as 1.4.
http://www.basejumper.com/cgi-bin/forum/gforum.cgi?post=2293473#2293473

So, at any time, 1 of approximately 15 BASE jumpers is dead.

Hey Space, come back to TX. for a visit.

PS
BASE 710 issued Dec. 01.
BASE 730 issued May 02.

Stay in touch.
Rick

correction: by running a poll on a group of jumpers who use basejumper.com and respond to silly polls regarding base numbers, you came up with an estimated ratio of total # of base jumpers in the above group to jumpers with base numbers.

so...
if all 450 people registered for any given Bridge Day actually attend, you'd expect 30 future fatalities amongst the group?

if that seems reasonable to you, maybe you ought to present your findings during the weekend?

p.s.
or you could ask Jason to poll jumpers if they visit this site regularly. you might get a different multiplier.

Here is another case!

out of 63 very experienced base jumpers attending KL 2002, and 38 most of the same as attending Shanghai China 2004.

There is 6 jumpers who is not with us any more. Those jumpers lost their lives in a very short period as well.

quite simple math, but also very sad statistic for our sport.

In response to Yuri's post, I did an analysis a few years ago that agrees with 1 out 15 will die.

I think the statistic heavily depends on how the researcher defines "BASE Jumper." if all the newbies jumping at BD and in Idaho are included, it will dramatically water down the fatality rate.

the KL and Shanghai events tend to favor the most experienced jumpers. this includes many that will push the envelope. high jump rate + high risk level = higher fatality rate.

so the key is how to define a BASE Jumper. active? retired? one-and-done jumpers? those who've applied for a BASE number? only jumpers who jump xx times a year?

I expect that as you change that definition, you will watch the fatality rate change.

ten out of ten people die
how they die is a minor detail
how they live is more important
live it up friends, it's all there is to do

I've been told that 87% of all statistics are right 53% (+/-3%) of the time, unless they are right 82% of the time. 46% (+/-3%) of all statistics fall in the latter category unless they don't, and in that case, it will have a 14.7% probability.

Funny thing to tell tandem passengers:
50% of the time, it works every time

Word.

Truer sentiments are rarely posted .

Badenhop, you're bad and you're right!! On your death bed, you won't have anything left but the Memories of your life. Might as well make some good ones.
Cliffleaper

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what i'm going to say on my deathbed is 'ugg... uggg.... the treasure is buried over... ugg..'