Basejumper.com - archive

You have a rig in your trunk and you can't remember if it contains a Mojo or a FLiK. Let's say the odds are 50/50 either way. You're getting ready to go jumping and you're going to lend a rig to a friend, so you toss in your other rig as well. This rig is identical in every way to the other one, except you know for a fact that it contains a FLiK.

You show up and randomly hand your friend one of the rigs.. You get to the top of the object and push him off first. Bam, his canopy opens and displays a beautiful "FLiK" logo.

What are the odds that the canopy you are jumping is also a FLiK?

My pilot chutes are all different colors

Dont be such a skydiver. Not everything must match.

hmmm...

it looks like this story will LACK Calvin or Karnowski...

well if you also own an ACE, Rock Dragon, Dagger, two Trolls and a FLiK, i'd say your name is brian fry and you wouldn't care. you'd jump them all and find out.

Okay, I haven't slept again so I might as well give this a shot.

Let:
A = "you get the Mojo"
B = "friend gets the Flik"
Let "first rig" be the one with unknown canopy and the "second rig" be the one that definitely has a Flik in it.

P(A|B) = P(you get the Mojo given that your friend got the Flik)

Bayes Theorem:
P(A|B) = P(B|A) * P(A) / P(B)

P(A) = P(you get Mojo). By law of total probability:
P(A) = P(you get first rig) * P(first rig has Mojo) + P(you get second rig) * P(second rig has Mojo)
P(A) = 0.5 * 0.5 + 0.5 * 0 = 0.25

P(B) = P(friend gets Flik). By law of total probability:
P(B) = P(friend gets first rig) * P(first rig has Flik) + P(friend gets second rig) * P(second rig has Flik)
P(B) = 0.5 * 0.5 + 0.5 * 1 = 0.75

P(B|A) = P(friend gets Flik given you have Mojo) = 1 since there is only one Mojo, your friend must have the Flik

Plug it all in and solve:
P(A|B) = 1 * 0.25 / 0.75 = 0.667.

So if P(A|B) = 2/3, the odds of you jumping the Mojo are 2:1, I think......

But what is so bad about that? I read it was a good canopy and there were a bunch at BD. People were saying the end cells don't inflate right way but from above it looked like it was flying nicely... but what do I know?

(Sleepy) Steve

Nothing's bad about it, they're both great canopies.

Your math is a little off, though

ok i'm not quite sure where you went wrong in the math, but i think you just reversed A and B. The odds of getting a FLiK are 2:1.

There are only a few possible outcomes, equally likely:

-Rig A has a Mojo, Rig B is a FLiK, your friend jumps Rig B (you end up with a Mojo)
-Rig A has a Mojo, Rig B is a Flik, your friend jumps Rig A (this didn't happen, so we cross this one out)
-Rig A has a FLiK, Rig B is a FLiK, your friend jumps rig B (you get rig A, a FLiK)
-Rig A has a FLiK, Rig B is a FLiK, your friend jumps rig A (you get rig B, a FLiK)

Wierd, I know...

Yea, that is probably what happened. I was fairly close I guess... at first you'd expect it to be 50/50 but it's another one of those things where you know something cannot happen due to additional information. I remember trying to wrap my mind around these things back in a stochastic processes class, and every single example problem involved a couple whose goal in life was to have a family with at least two boys. It made your head hurt.

Steve

Are you related to Yuri_base ?

We are related by nationality, and you are also... Da?

I think you mean your name if Walden. If your name is brian fry, youve had all that gear confiscated.

As I was walking to The Nose
I met a man with seven hoes
Seven hoes with seven sacks
Seven sacks with seven rigs
And in each rig packed seven pigs.

Pigs, rigs, sacks, hoes...
How many were going to the Nose?

How many were going to the Nose?

1 Russian BASE Jumper

As for the other items:
1 Man
7 Hoes
343 Pigs

why do you think inzite is Russian ?

He just is... mostly because he doesn't make any sense

Does he mean that each of the hoes has 7 rigs? or there are a total of 7 hoes and 7 rigs?

Too ambiguous, any answer you give and he'll say it was the opposite

why do you think Inzite is Russian ?

Cause that is right below his name?!

"Heeeeeere's your sign....."

That's where you're wrong. Russian BASE jumpers never go anywhere alone. They always swarm to the exit in packs of 10 or 20.

Though you were right about none of the other items going to The Nose.

Well, its 49 pigs + the number of russians on the load.

So at least 50 pigs total, probably more like 60-70 with the "pack theory" taken into account.

By same logic whoever lists Zimbabwe in their profile is Zimbabwean ?

For example I list United States, but I am not American.

weird, huh ?

Alright, I'll bite, what are you?


According to Tom Robbins I am from Argon.

I don't consider Tom Robbins a credible source on ancestry, just like I don't consider Karnowski a credible source of unpacked jumps from Perrine.

Now you're just not giving yourself credit. You're at least as American as I am Russian. We've just gotta fatten you up a bit.

There are some odd replies in this thread even from a "finger in the butt" point of view.