Basejumper.com - archive

I just received word from a contact in South America that I consider reliable. There was a BASE fatality last night (Saturday) from a 250-foot cell phone tower in Brazil. The name (23-year old male) is being withheld and the report didn't make clear what type of jump it was. But it did indicate a problem with the deployment of the pilot chute. I'll wait to update the List until more facts are known, but since this is a sad milestone for us all I thought it important to say something . . .

NickD
BASE 194

Bummer,
I know people
in South America.

Numbers are only numbers. They do not represent who that person was.
It sounds like we need to get to # 101. So we can get move on and get past this Milestone. In time we will be wondering who # 200 will be. It is only inevitable.
.

Know what you are trying to say but...


Sadly True.....

Coco

 
The big question is who are the ones that are going to be around @ #-199. To do the wondering ?
.

Jeez Ray, you're reminding me of "Debbie Downer" - Saturday Night Live Character

Coco

We all have our ways of dealing with death. Some ignore it, while with others it guides their every move. The correct response, I believe, is somewhere in the middle. However, we (all of us) would be remiss if we let this one go by with an, "oh well, that's the way of it," reaction.

My initial reason for my starting the BASE fatalities list was a foolish one – I actually thought we could educate death right out of this sport. In a time when BASE knowledge was limited and full-on BASE gear still some years away – there was a lot to learn. And it seemed, at the time, actually easy to think, what was killing us in those days could be cured with information. But, that didn’t turn out to be true because even as we became smarter we didn’t figure the failings and weaknesses of human nature into the equation.

BASE is such a funny thing when compared to most other endeavors. We all practice the same sport, but we’ve managed to fracture the pursuit into a dizzying array of sub-species. Myself, I’m not an automatic “legal site” fan and I’ve always thought our lack of legal status actually made us safer and more cautious to a certain degree. You see this in the fact that many legal building jump events in countries outside the USA, and other certain high profile events here in the USA, are invitational only. But that horse has left the barn in other places where bridges and cliffs are legal and no one is in charge; and we should try to find new ways to bring prudence back into the game at that level.

One major change, especially at legal sites, is when a death occurs we don’t fully engage the question of why and how to prevent it from happening again. I think we worry more along the lines of, “Okay, time for damage control, as we can’t let “them” shut this site down.”

What happens then is the onus gets dumped squarely on the jumper who’s dead for making the mistake (in order to preserve the site) rather than on the root causes of why it happened in the first place. And I’m not talking about a simple weak toss of pilot chute or a packing error as anyone of us are capable of those things. It about our attitude toward BASE jumping that needs to change – no check that – it needs to evolve.

Look at some of the tag lines to posts on this board – “Go fast and pull low,” – “Let your life speak loud so you don’t have to,” and so many others of that ilk, gee, are we so manipulated by Madison Avenue hogwash like Nikes’ “Just do it,” that it’s become some people’s personal mantras?

There are some now who would never profess to even thinking about safety as it would somehow harm their image. And the sooner we get away from that the better off we’ll all be. Why not, “It’s cool to be schooled,” if it takes a catchy phrase to make sense.

Okay, I’m not talking to all of you, I know better than that after all this time. There’s always been an unreachable percentage of BASE jumpers so forget them – For the rest, the ones capable of open discussion, debate, and dialogue here’s some things I believe would help:

- Ray is right – there’s always going to be the “next” fatality. The important thing is what you do after that. Maybe a personal safety stand-down on an individual basis isn’t a bad idea. During that down time you can re-evaluate your motivations, brush up on basic safety skills, and think hard about what you’re doing. I remember a time when most BASE jumpers were indeed a certain type. They were strong willed, mostly rough around the edges, and determined to BASE jump at all costs. Stand by the launch point at any BASE boogie today and you’ll see a lot of sheep following the heard. (I don’t like the term “sheep” in reference to people but I’m trying hard to make a point). If you aren’t the type that can also walk out to the launch point totally alone and jump – then that should tell you something. If you are on your 30th BASE jump and still need to stand on the edge with your hands up like you’re under arrest that should also tell you something. If you are the type that goes through a grinder of fear and emotion on every launch with the expectation that after landing you’ll feel great, then that’s telling you something.

- I think it may be time to re-evaluate the industry standard of when someone should begin BASE training. (My bosses won’t like this) but I’m convinced that right now that number is too low. What I’m saying is the that the number of previous parachute jumps is important, but maybe not as important as maturity. What number to use? Maybe 500 or 800 or even a thousand – and why – because it’s hard to take when a person who’s 19 years old with 200 jumps overall goes in – and in my mind I can’t help but think the poor soul never had a chance. Would this stop fatalities, no, but at least it would happen to the more experienced ones that are pushing it rather than the very innocent ones who are just trying to keep up.

- Lastly, if you are a skydiver now, and interested in BASE, and if the person who’s helping you says, “Cool, you’re going to love it,” then turn and run as far and as fast as your can back to the DZ. Instead find a mentor that says, “no way, pal,” the first 10 times you ask them for help . . .

- The numbers game – not many will say this but I will. It is OKAY to spend big bucks on a BASE trip and make only one or two jumps. Or even none when the conditions are marginal. The guy you hear boasting about his 8 jumps today, while he may be quite capable at that level, is spitting on the rest of you. Ignore him.

Again, I’m not saying we should institute these things as hard and fast rules – but on an individual level, as a personal set of rules enforced on yourself by yourself it isn’t going to hurt. And maybe, just maybe, prolong your enjoyment and longevity in this world . . .

NickD
BASE 194

well said Nick...ive been saying 500 jumps with some caveats to a lot of potentials here in england for some years...some take notice some dont..its quite interesting to see the ethical standards and complete lack of risk comprehension that the nose thumbers have...the uk has twelve newbies at least either in Norway right now or who have done courses so far this year and the numbers are rising..the scary thing is only a few have ever jumped a big seven cell..hardly any have done any crw and the same numbers have over 500 skydives...we have had one fatality here this year that was completely avoidable and god forbid i fear more are coming..

it scares me shitless...

500 jumps should be the bare minimum

Downer ? dude I was chuckling to my-self pretty good. when I typed that.
You see I plan to Be One of the ones that will be looking @ #-199 & Wondering who's ??? . #-200 . ...
.

Lol, yea same here!

Coco

 

Nick,
I hope this gets set "sticky" or better yet as an article posted at the top of the forums list. Well said.

-=Raistlin

 

Have a read over the BASE Training Pre-Requisites and the BASE Criteria articles on the ABA web site? I think they do a good job of emphasizing that it's an underlying skill set, not a magic number of jumps, that a prospective BASE student ought to be working toward.

From an instructors perspective, there are lots of difficulties with setting a strict minimum jump number.

The biggest one, in my mind, is the other folks who will take a prospective "student" jumping without the pre-requisite experience.

Imagine that you, or I, say "I absolutely will not take a student with less than X jumps."

Joe Doe, our prospective student, falls short of the hard-and-fast minimum. But his friend, Jack Hack, a 50 jump wonder, says "hey, Joe, no problem, I'll take you out and chuck you off stuff right now."

Joe thinks; "hey, that's great, I'm going jumping." And he's off to the races. While he's racing, he possibly learns some bad habits, receives limited or substandard instruction, and then potentially goes in under a catastrophic rigging error.


Now, as a BASE instructor, what do you do about this?

Here are some options:

1) Soundly condemn Jack and Joe, and let them know you think that one or both of them are destined for places on the List.

2) Offer to instruct Joe (with better quality instruction than Jack might provide), right now. This opens up a whole new can of worms. Are you charging for the instruction? What if Jack is offering it for free?

3) Offer to instruct Joe, but only if he completes a set of pre-requisite exercises and skill development. It's likely that the only way that you can get him to jump through all these hoops is to offer the instruction for free when he gets there.

4) Heat up the tar and feather, and try to shut down Jack's activities.


The underlying point is this: If the good instructors refuse to take people without pre-requisite experience (or on some sliding scale), there will always be several "Jacks" who will fill in the gap and lead Joe astray.


It's probably too much to take all comers. But if you make it too hard, you'll find that suddenly all BASE instruction everywhere is being done by 50 jump wonders, and there is no real knowledge transfer, with the blind leading the blind into a phenomenally dangerous situation.

And obviously, when you start offering free instruction, and using that as an inducement for people to develop prerequisite skills, you start running yourself ragged. It's really, really hard to give quality instruction for free on an ongoing basis. Pretty much no one has that much energy.

I've been wondering if one good idea isn't to offer discounts on BASE instruction programs for various prerequisite skills: $50 off if you have more than 50 CRW jumps, $100 off if you have a good mentor committed to helping you when you get home, $50 off if you are a certified rigger, etc, etc.

Tom,

Being a 'newbe' who did a FBJC, I have the following comment. People with no or limited BASE experince do understand the $$$ sign. Not only would it give an indication of importance key training objectives, but it would focus on their pre-course training/preparation. Of course that would only apply to those that have the cash to do the course in the first place. I have heard of cases where people said "hey, you have done the course - why dont you tech me?" - no way - I still sweat everytime I pack my rig! The problem is more and more people will get into the sport because of the media exposure (extreme sport). More people will offer courses and more people will cut corners. Bridge Day is a controlled environment and we are allowed to jump once a year. TF offers us this opportuity all year round. It won't take long for the friendly brother/sister hood to tun onto each other if Jack and Joe get abmulanced out on every trip.

In summry, I like the financial incencive 'carrot' - (works for the Army), but cant stop anyone with tarp over their head launchig some freeky bridge flyoff,

Mick

What would you say to a student who just got their solo certificate, if they asked why do you skydive?
If you don't get it, I can't explain it
Just like skydiving, BASE is not for everyone

The other factors (apart from site shutdown) that affect this lack of analysis:
- people are concerned that family / friends will be grossly offended if their loved one was deemed to have made a mistake leading to their death. Hence they like to conclude that is was just plain bad luck and the person died what they loved doing.
- on many occasions, there are insufficient or inadequate resources / skills available to truly determine root cause. The evidence may not be adequate for experts to analyse at a later date either. People involved or present will have blurred perceptions of what went on as they may be emotionally scarred by a friend / aquaintance loved one who has just been severaly injured or killed.
- Many jumpers are concerned that their colleague will be branded a loser or failure too. So it is human nature to protect them. Individually, we don't all like to publically admit to our mistakes either. This may be seen as a weakness in our skill sets, which has a counter productive contribution to our ego's.

The above is all opinion and is NOT necessarily true for everyone.

The fact is that we are human and we do make mistakes. Whether we like to admit it or not, virtually all accidents are due in one way or another to human error. The sooner people recognise and accept this, the sooner they can adjust their behaviours and actions such that risk is reduced, skill is increased, and incident rates go down. It is also true to say that there are so many factors that could lead to an accident and that it is extremely difficult to think of and manage all of them, but if you nail the fundamentals, there is much less chance of the one off / "freaky" events occuring.

The other thing that you may not have mentioned is that BASE jumpers as a group tend to be very sensitive about failure. By this I mean that many people in this sport become overly offended if someone says, "you messed up". Bad luck is often used as an answer to what is the root cause of an accident. Hence, any opportunity to analysis and improve is brushed away with this one attitude or comment. "You learn from your mistakes" is one of the most famous cliche's / sayings in history. Why? Because most people believe it and in most cases, it is true. If you don't beleive it, then you are more likely to continue making your mistakes or repeating the mistakes that others have made before you.


From personal experience Nick, this attitude of yours just gets you unpopular!!!!!! I know. Because I am. But I am happy to say that there are several individuals that I have assisted in their development which I am truly proud of. It is true that they might think I am a pain in the arse, but they were open enough to understand why I have been saying and what you are saying. They will live longer and prosper. They will mroe that likely acheive at a higher level. There are others whom I have advised to alter their progression rates, attitudes, even participation in the sport - most have gone on to do their own thing because they did not take this advice on board. The end result has been fatalities, major incidents, permanent injury, premature retirement from the sport, etc. They were so focused on the final act / goal, that they lost site of the journey towards that goal.

Giving this type of advice leads to ridicule / back stabbing / etc. But it is necessary. Because those that are intelligent enough to understand the underlying reasoning do take it on board, and they end up living and making positive contributions to the sport and society in general.

Hence, we all have a choice. Learn, progress, achieve. OR Achieve (if you are lucky).

Numbers are only relevant as a screening tool for people you have no idea about. They should NEVER be used as the only selection criteria for prospective BASE jumpers. There are people with 1000 jumps, no packing skills, no seven cell experience, no incidents that they have had to deal with, etc. There are people with 100 jumps who can pack their reserves, CRW, accuracy, cutaway, etc experience that would be more suited.

How do you get into one of Tom Aiello's courses? Meet the multiple criteria that he has set. There are other places that only ask for numbers. Who has better risk management? I vote for Tom.

What is crucially important in BASE jumping (and most other things in life) is a logical and controlled development of fundamental skills PRIOR TO - NOT DURING attempting higher risk activities.

Roll, drag, crawl, walk, run, fly!!!!!! Don't run first!!!!!

Regarding your comments on regulation, here are my thoughts.

I am neither for or against it at an institutional / group / society level.

HOWEVER,

it should be, no it MUST BE absolutely mandatory on an individual level.

Every jumper SHOULD regulate themselves.

Not doing this is an utterly selfish, anti - societal act.

Why? Look at the repercussions of when you go in.
- your family loses one of their loved ones. As do your friends, colleagues, society, etc.
- the sport has to endure another loss of one of it's breathren.
- the people who are trying so hard to keep people safe are constantly being slapped in the face and their work is not being heeded or respected.
- there are flow on affects related to the sports image.
- we DO lose site access. This is real. It is like an endangered species being wiped out. It's great to look at the pictures and video's but NOTHING beats the real thing. Building demo's have been stopped a/c accidents, site access to well known jump areas has been made illegal and punishable, security has been increased immensely on many sites, etc, etc, etc.
- the whole productivity of society is affected whenever someone dies. It takes time effort and money to replace some of the skills and experiences that many jumpers possess.

It is one thing to make an attempt on Mt Everest and die in the pursuit of a goal that you have worked extremely hard for over a long period of time.It is another to make the decision and just go for it without the preparation. The first person commands some degree of respect, etc. The second is the type that makes the authorities make it harder for everyone else to get access to the Mountain. It is lazy, sloppy, unprofessional, selfish, etc.

BASE is the same. Do the work, then do the jumps.

Doing the work is what I am referring to when I talk about self - regulation.

You are an adult capable of collecting information, opinion, etc, and making a reasonable decision based on that. You are also capable of doing the right thing (training, techniques, risk, equipment, etc). If you choose not to, you are not self-regulating. If you stuff up, and someone else stuff's up, and then someone else . . . . . .


Finally the non-jumping parts of society will get the shits and introduce institutionalised regulation up to and including the level of banning the activity.

Hence, it is in EVERYONE's interest if each BASE jumper regulates what they do.

I see that your being sarcastic, yet I can tell it irks you to confront this. Being the 'safe man' or the 'parent' of a group is UNCOOL. I abhorred my parents, some teachers, etc. I had the "They were not "cool", "what the fuck do they know?" attitude. Growing older ( a little) and wiser (even less so) I have appreciated those who have learned and passed on, not as authoritative, but educational experiences and insight on our sport.

So Tom, Nick,
Thank You for putting up with little BASE brats like me for more years than I've seen nylon over my egotistical head.

Nic Russell

The guidelines are out there, the information is out there, the instruction is out there, the right equipment is out there, the collective wisdom is out there. If people choose to ignore all or any of the available assets, then there is little anyone can do and we should really think long and hard before we try and regulate to save people from themselves. It IS a slippery slope as NickDG has pointed out in the past (which is why i am a tad surprised at his suggestion to regulate more but i dare say i have misunderstood him) and to paraphrase Leia talking to Peter Cushing's Character in Star Wars

"The more you tighten your grip, the more star systems will slip through your fingers."

Skydiving is a great sport but it's in a regulatory downward spiral as far as i am concerned. That's a helter skelter that is very difficult to get off, so why get on it.

Legal BASE seems to be the stumbling block, because from where i'm standing, no amount of fatalities or adverse press coverage is going to prevent me from finding new and devious ways of getting on, and then off, the endless supply of non legal jumpable objects we have at our disposal.

And yes i said endless; in the respect that by the time i have crossed off all the objects on my hit list, there will be another bunch going up somewhere just ready to go.

If Legal BASE is the price we have to pay to remain non-regulated, then i will not bat an eye for a single moment when it slips off into oblivion. Legal base is a luxury: non-regulation is a necessity! BASE without legal objects works just fine, BASE without freedom from regulation just does not.

I vote we provide care for those who care. and let the others take their chances head on with gravity. BASE is self regulatory in it's absolute nature. Even if you show it the respect it deserves, it CAN kill you, so for those who show no respect, it's simply a matter of time and probability.

Harsh. No. Impact is harsh.

ian

I didn't think people paid for your course Tom? Or are you talking generally? Whatever, it's an interesting idea. Could you end up paying people to take your course? :-)

However, I think this will completely pass by the people who are in most need of the extra skills. With the prevelance of paying courses these days, and the ease of getting on one, there is the "money no object" mind-set of those in too much of a hurry to take the time to develop the skills that are going to save their lives.

In addition

here's how i'd approach that if i were a person looking to fast track it into BASE.

Cost of doing 50 Crw jumps with instruction plus maybe kit hire and travel to and from the dropzone = $1000 at least. Penalty to not have these on FJC = $50 (or even $500). Result = Bargain to not do them. Same goes for jump numbers, riggers ratings, etc.

Cost to acquire them far outweighs the penalty for not. Therefore not really an incentive.

At the end of the day, the only real incentive for anyone to acquire these skills is the incentive to stay alive and unbroken. If that isn't enough incentive then i fear you're pissing in the wind with financial ones.

ian

Here is my proxy vote too.

These comments i should add are nothing whatsoever to do with the tragic fatality mentioned in the initial post, of which we know little or nothing of the experience or circumstances.

My sincere sympathies go out to the family of the deceased.

ian

Brats & Ego's & Stuff.

We know, because we were. And some of us still are. But we do not proclaim to know all. Only some things.

It's just like flares and sideburns. It comes, it goes, and we always seem to be going in circles.

Now, what stupid thing can I try next . . . . . . . . .

 

I can't put mine into words but I know why the moment I step off the edge. For me...its worth every risk.

Coco

I feel that everyone has their own reasons for base jumping.

For me, I continuously wonder why i base jump. While others are at home with their family, playing on the computer, going out with friends to clubs, etc...I'm sneaking around during the wee hours of the night, jumping fences, sweating to get to exit and putting my life on the line, knowing I have to wake up for work in 4 hours...and then I question myself : why the hell am I doing this?

But... at the exact moment my feet begin to leave an exit point and I know there is no turning back... in that moment, I truely understand why I BASE jump. And that feeling/understanding, is something I cannot explain in words to anyone even if I tried. It is all for me. It is my heaven.

I've tried explaining it. I can't.

The coolest friends I have are the ones who simply accept that I can't explain it. Sometimes I try to put it in words by saying that "it's the most beautiful sport I know".

But that just doesn't quite capture it.......especially because to a non-BASE-jumper it's not a beautiful sport. It's "people throwing themselves off of objects with parachutes".

I think the point of asking the question is more to make you think about it than it is to actually come up with an answer.

I tend to be more impressed with people who put thought into asking themselves these questions, rather than either the folks who never engage in introspection, or the folks who think they have one defining answer.

I just want to fly. That's my one defining answer

As dumb as this sounds, I almost wish I could get the same level of satisfaction doing something less dangerous.

I think a round number by itself doesn't represent any milestone. It's just a number. Incrementing 99 to 100 doesn't have any special meaning as neither 65 to 66, 199 to 200, or 665 to 666 do. Given enough time, there will be 200, 666, 1000000, etc. BASE fatalities someday.

But the ratio of the highest BASE number to date (Joy's List) to the total number of fatalities (Nick's List) -- or L/D ratio (Life vs. Death) -- gives us some food for thought...

Currently, L/D ~ 11.

Of course, the highest BASE number represents only some percentage of total number of jumpers, but one could argue that this percentage doesn't change much with time.

Also, the derivative of this ratio (that is, the number of BASE numbers issued in one year to the number of deaths in that year) may reveal some tendencies.

Eleven... Per 10 alive, 1 dead.

Yuri

That’s a good way to put it. The time between when I arrive (climb, gear up, exit, freefall, and land) and leave with a big smile on my face is the happiest I've ever been. Nothing gives me a greater feeling of joy and fulfillment than BASE has. Like Hookitt said, I too wanna fly. Makes you feel free (a feeling totally different from skydiving in my opinion).

Coco

>>From personal experience Nick, this attitude of yours just gets you unpopular!!!!!! I know. Because I am.<<

That's for sure, and I've seen both sides of it.

When Carl was alive and running the USBA he was, except for writing up his adventures and passing on what little safety info there was at the time, hands off as far as what we should and shouldn’t be doing. He believed nature would just take its course. And he was right. When his widow Jean took over she wanted everything down on paper and the word "organization" became her mantra, and we hated it . . . and many even took to hating her.

Carl had a slight advantage over us in that he died before the fatality list became so populated. He himself is only number seven on that list. Had he lived until today I’m sure his position would have hardened up – as a person would have to be heartless or brain dead not to show some pause over the current numbers. And Carl was neither of those things.

Last night, over a beer with skydiving friend he said to me, “There’s only been a hundred BASE fatalities? Gee, that’s not too bad at all.” And I suppose in the abstract it can be thought of like that. The problem is it’s not abstract - not to me, and not to many others who knew so many of those people.

If you can duck in and out of BASE jumping in just a few years you don’t have to face the responsibility of the young ones dying. And we (all of us) are responsible because we make the jokes, share the videos, and generally aren’t that shy anymore of showing what a grand old time we’re having. But if you’re still in the game after twenty years it's going to start to eat on you.

The answer, I think, is still the way it’s always been – one person passes BASE on to the next. No matter if it’s a BASE course or someone you met at the DZ that seems to work as we die not so much from bad information but from bad judgment or just plain bad luck. And I have no idea what to do about that. So that’s when the term “regulation” bears its ugly head. Because we don’t know what else to do. And I chuckle sometimes when someone tries to explain to me that regulation will never work as I invented many of those same arguments.

I suppose in the end we can only control ourselves personally and I can sleep at night only because anyone who ever gets BASE from me gets the warts and all. So yes, my own attitude changed from a “let the brothers go” total freedom, and fly the jolly roger thing - to where it is now. And to those coming up the same change will occur in you too. Unless you're heartless or brain dead . . .

Oh, and the latest word on this tower fatality - it was static line, and during the climb out the bridle got in front of the jumper, around his waist area, and on launch the dynamic force overloaded the break cord and it parted before opening the container.

NickD
BASE 194

That's not much better than the odds of Russian roulette. At least we have a lot of fun jumping.

>>Do you know if he had a 46 attached to his bridle?
I would think from 250ft he'd have a chance if he had a 46 attached, but not so much if he was entangled with it.

The first report from the weekend did mention a pilot chute, but the lastest one did not.

It always takes a while to get the details sorted out . . .

NickD
BASE 194

I compiled the numbers from BASENumbers.org and BASE Fatality List, here's the trend of L/D ratio from 1983 (note the vertical axis starts at 7).

Yuri

This is interesting. Imagine that after all these years that jump fatality rates are as bad as they were back in 1988. Same thing happened in skydiving when that sport evolved.

Very good, Yuri!

NickD
BASE 194

Here's more info from this afternoon:

The jumper was PCA-ing himself after helping two others get off first. The bridle got in front of him and he launched. Although the pilot chute inflated the bridle is essentially wrapped around his body. He realized something was wrong and fought with it and did manage to get some canopy material out but it was entangled with his body also. He died immediately on impact . . .

NickD
BASE 194

I updated the spreadsheet with running 1, 3, and 5 year averages.

For what it's worth...

Yuri

FUNDAMENTALS!!!!

Sad.

Condolences to all involved. And that is ALL OF US!!!

To ZegeunerLeben

Here are a few lessons.

I have S/L two people without any p/c attached.

I trust with my own experience that I will do the job - AND I use double redundancy (hand held + S/L). The two people also trusted me implicitly.

HOWEVER, I WILL NOT TRUST ANYONE ELSE TO DO IT FOR ME. No matter if they are way better than me, or way worse. I will walk down.

I want that big p/c attached to my bridle regardless.

Why? Because in the end, my life is my responsibility. And it is up to me to manage my own risks.

There is a jumper who asked a taxi driver to hold his p/c off a 50 m bridge!!!!!!! The taxi driver had never seen a jump before. Would you do this??? In the end he hung on for dear life, the bridle burned his hands, and the canopy was distorted quite a bit (not such a good thing from 50m), but the principal remains.


p.s. this is harder to achieve when you are inexperienced.

I might have a frighteningly accurate estimate when that's gonna be.

In the last 15 years or so, according to data from BASE #'s vs. time graph, the number of BASE jumpers has been growing exponentially with the time constant of approx. 0.095/year: N(Year) = N(StartYear)*exp(0.095*(Year - StartYear)).

Thus, the number of BASE jumpers doubles every

ln(2)/0.095 ~ 7.3 years

(like money at 9.5% interest rate will double in 7.3 years)

If the current rate of 1 death per approx. 10 issued BASE #'s stays the same for several years, 100 more deaths will "take" 1000 more new BASE #'s, so #200 will go in when BASE #2070 (1070 today + 1000) is issued. 2070 is 1035 doubled, and 1035 was issued approx. in September 2005. 2005.7 + 7.3 = 2013.

So, those who will be alive in 2013, will be wondering who's #200.

Those who will be alive in 2030 (2006 + ln(10)/0.095), will be wondering who's #1000.

Exponential explosion of the number of jumpers leads to exponential explosion of The List.

Yuri

Sadly, i didnt even read any farther down this forum to see if anybody beet me to it, but i have a thing or three to say about what you did there say.

to most of us jumpers,
the point of BASE jumping is not the freefall, its not the short ass canopy ride, its not the 100th death, its not the feeling we get when we read about the 'incident report' out of 'BASEist monthly'
this is NOT a sport about following the rules, or jump order for safety, or correct deployment altitude, its not about landing accuracy or the perfect track,

Man did not explore the world (and sadly, later totaly destroy it) by paying 20USD (25in CO) to ride the same little sailboat around the same lake up to 30,000 times in a lifetime.

They built there own boat, drew some maps, found a good crew, bribed someone else into paying for it, and they left. they went and saw the world.

Granted, all those great explorers learned to sail on cutelittle boats, around the little lake where they live, but some moved on.

A lot of those little explorers stayed there, in the lake, perfected their sailing. they raced other wannabe explorers, and probably took home a lot of women who thought that sailing is the last great adventure.

but then, the real explorers got home, some of them dead, some of them failed horribly, but those ones that got home, they have character. I guess they went out to drink with the wannabe explorers, shared stories of the lake, and raceing, then stories of the grand ocean, new islands, new land.
and those women were there, and still went home with there wannabe explorers. and you know why thats ok with everyone?
because that, as well, is not why most base jumpers do what they do.

Now is where i am supposed to say WHY base jumpers do what they do, and WHY its ok to risk everything. Im supposed to redeam myself for makeing fun of skydivers for the last 1000 charecters. but im not going to.



none of the BASE jumpers that are considered respectable, blame you or anybody else who chooses to quit or never start. I guess, All i got to say is that BASE jumpers all have different reasons, for doing what they do. they get out, and they see what is out there, just another way to prove that they are Audacious.

AUDACIOUS, is not an insult, from the first time i was called it as an insult i fealt complimented, because I AM A JUMPER. like DG brilliantly sad before, I, and US, will forever be BASE jumpers.
so, greenie, this is obviously just a pep talk telling averybody to be themselves... quit for anything you want. start for the same reason.

AUDACITY:simply, bold courage
so, essentialy, nevermind

Yuri, I'm impressed by the amount of free time you have! Thanks for the math.

Man are you bored! Go pack or something.

Not everyone on "the list" has a BASE number, so your data is kinda screwy.

You need to take only those with BASE numbers on the list and compare them to the current BASE number.

The percentage of BASE# holders to total# of BASErs worldwide is getting lower nowadays for a number of reasons including:

* More jumpers completeing FJC's than applying for BASE#'s and this figure rising yearly

* Given it's mainly English-speaking jumpers bothering with BASE#'s ,and BASE is growing across all languages, the percentage of #holders gets smaller as the sport grows.

Because of this, Yuri's exponential is actually conservative 'cause it relies on the percentage of BASErs that hold BASE#'s to be the same over the given time period.

There's not enough numbers/figures available in the "BASE# only" equation that you suggest to make as good a projection as what has already been given here.

g.

It is. The growth over the last 15 years has been superexponential -- exponential with increasing growth rate.

Attached is the growth rate since 1990. From 2002 to 2005, it increased from 8% to 13%.

At 13% rate, the number of BASE jumpers doubles every 5.3 years.

That means, we might see #200 in 2011.

Paraphrasing Nick's nugget, we may say that "Numbers 101-150 are walking around among us right now, and numbers 151-200 will start BASE in the next 5 years, but they will all be dead by the year 2011. Please, if you see these people - "Next Hundred" - pull them aside and tell them to slow down . . ."

Yuri

I estimate the numbers are doubling every 8.3 years. I estimate a constant annual fatality rate to be 1/10 relative to the BASE numbers. I estimate the true fatality risk to be 1/15 to 1/30 relative to the total number of BASE jumpers. Further data is needed to do a full statistical analysis.

 

The almost linear graph (fatalities vs. BASE #'s) is very illustrative.

Given that according to the poll the ratio of total number of BASE jumpers to those with BASE #'s is about 1.4, the fatality risk is about 1/15, or 7%.

Every 15th of us will die BASE jumping... On a positive note, the rest 14 will most likely die at age 100 making love to a hot 18y.o. babe.

Yuri

The remaining part of the analysis is to find the total number of active jumpers instead of total throughout history. That would lower the number of jumpers and increase the fatality rate.

I agree.

what about jump frequency?
aren't modern jumpers more active?

Another interesting thing about your graph is that the distance between points is increasing (reflecting the exponential growth of numbers with time). If one were to make an animation with points being added one by one, we'll see the point accelerating like a rocket through the sky...

It's only a matter of time that this ever accelerating and growing rocket is going to hit popular legal sites and destroy them.

Tom,
sorry man, i agree i was preaching to the choir.
but, being me, thats what i do.
I just dont like it when people excuse themselves from the sport because its "only 2 seconds of freefall and a short canopy ride" i just think that its a crappy way out of it.
so, sorry man, i know you didnt mean it like that, but i just got annoyed sitting in my house for the 124thish day, and i fealt like talking on a soapy box thing.
Be well, You and I, Us, will always be Base jumpers.
no more advice, none of that should come from me.
im going to spray paint toggles.
be well.

I'm a unclear on the 1/15 chance of dying in BASE. Does that mean a BASE jumper has a 1/15 likelihood of dying in BASE in any given year of BASE jumping, all other things being equal?

If the above is correct, then my chances of making it to the ripe old age of 100 depend on how many years I spend BASE jumping. If my BASE career lasts for 8 years, then my chances of dying a BASE death are somewhere in the 1 - (14/15)^8 = 0.42. So I have a 42% chance of dying during an 8-year-long BASE career.

Those aren't very good odds.

From a similar perspective, one jump in several thousand (maybe 5000, maybe 10000 - that's not the point) ends with a fatality.

Unfortunately, with significantly more jumps being done (superexponential growth), the sport will have to live with higher number of fatalities. The majority of recent fatalities were referred to as accidents, and did not seem to be really preventable (i.e. two accidents in Switzerland, close tracking in Norway, TF etc.) and this points to a certain baseline "inherent" death rate in BASE, just like everywhere else...

 

- Lastly, if you are a skydiver now, and interested in BASE, and if the person who’s helping you says, “Cool, you’re going to love it,” then turn and run as far and as fast as your can back to the DZ. Instead find a mentor that says, “no way, pal,” the first 10 times you ask them for help . . .



Ain't that the truth ruth......................

Well, I am not all that bright when it comes to numbers. However, I seem to remember a saying along the lines of "There are statistics, then there are more statistics and then ther are just plain lies". In fact, manipulating numbers we can probably demonstrate that 1=3. With my limited experience in BASE, I can not believe that people stand at the edge of an object with a calculator working out that they have a 76% chance of survival. Maybe I have no idea what drives people and they enjoy and seek the near death experience, but personally, I like the odds to be on my side. Does it excite people to say "Hey, somone is going to die in the next 30 jumps and I am jumping tonight?" Of course, the aspect of danger and the hightened awareness what is happening around you is exciting, but in my humble opinion, I am not focused on death or serious injury, but the satisfaction I get from the jump. As you can probably tell, I struggle with EXCEL and in particular in producing fancy graphs.

Mick

This is how the late great DW would have done it.

1 - Find 15 friends (or anything with a pulse and insane desire to fall off stuff).
2 - make up 15 straws and shorten one of them.
3 - make the short one easiest to access and stick out a little more than the others.
4 - when the inevitable happens and someone else draws the short straw, make a huge song and dance out of it. That way, they feel pressure to continue the trend of short straw drawers having an accident.
5 - psych them out on a regular basis, but especially before the next jump.
6 - sing the "bounce, bounce, bounce" song just before they start their exit count.
7 - once they go in, you are home and hosed. There are 14 humanoids left and one spare rig. Enjoy your jumping future.

More deaths are certain. But "not really preventable"??? You are totally and utterly incorrect.

Based on the info on the list (which may be incorrect ???):

#100 - the proverbial "pin check". Actual bridle check.
#99 - incorrect initiation of deployment sequence (p/c throw).
#98 - unsure, but too close to wall. #43 had an unstable exit followed by incorrect recovery technique which left him too close to the wall. That wall gobbles people up - jumpers and climbers alike.
#97 - slider up short delay with it's inherent issues leading to off heading.
#96 - unstable exit.
#95 - reaction time, 40 jumps, BASE school.
#94 - packing aid left on p/c.
#93 - OD - the BASE equivalent of an OD!!!
#92 - unstable exit and heading control.
#91 - unstable at deployment time - low pull.
#90 - heading control.
#89 - no pull a/c instability on WS.
#88 - plan Z jump instead of walkign away.
#87 - unstable + low pull.
#86 - poor visibility + low pull.

etc. c.f. Nicks comments about personal perceptions when reading the above.

Now, some of these could happen to any of us.

I have an old saying which I think is apt in this discussion. "Each incident was preventable, every accident is not".

In laymans terms, we usually can tell what happened in hindsight, but it is hard to stop all bad things happening using foresight.

So the best solution is to do your best. Arm yourself with knowledge, skills, experiences, and mentors who can positively contribute to your BASE career. Do things the right way. Stay safe. Have Fun. make your own luck.

The time has come for change BIG change some good some bad.watch this space.

you are a wise man.

Incidents/Hazards - hey, here are afew definitions (sorry, last job)

Incident - The occurrence of a hazard that might have progressed to an accident, but did not.

Hazard - Potential source of harm

Accident - An unintended event or sequence of events that causes harm

Harm- Death, physical injury or damage to the health of people, or damage to property or the environment.

Hazard Identification - The process of identifying and listing the hazards and accidents associated with a system.

So, an incident might highlight areas that lead to an accident, but both are preventable if we do correct/appropiate hazard identification. Problem tends to be unless you know about likely hazards, your risk analysis goes to pot and so on (i.e. those bastards shoot back, which pinstripe suit did not anticipate). It is sad but true, that the best hazard analysis in the world is not good enough until it can be beefed up by 'lessons identified', i.e. through incidents and hopefully few accidents.

Personally, all these numbers, graphs and definitions make me think of work, which is something I leave behind when I head out. Then again, some people might think this is not the appropiate 'scientific' and 'ordered' approach one should take when it comes to BASE. Undoubtedly I will learn with time, but for the time being I enjoy the freedom and leave my calculator and definition handbook on my desk as I leave work.

Just my penny

Mick

 
Regarding accidents: I might go in tomorrow. Well, maybe not at the rate I am currently jumping at. Anyway, if I do something dumb. I don't want you to do the same thing. OK!!! That is what I am getting at.


Each to their own. We are all adults, we are free to make decisions. And we are each responsible for the outcome. You, me, everyone else.


You have the opportunity to know most of the hazards. The fundamentals are out there. You choose to learn them or not.


Yes. Most potential stuff ups have already happened. Your objective is to learn from others experiences. Not to go through them all yourself.

OK. So lets cut the bullshit. This might be a nugget.

Leave your brain at work, and your head will make less mess when . . . . .

Nobody becomes brilliant / excellent at something by chance and without hard work.

BASE is not the place to stop thinking.

Chill out after the jump.

 

I wanted to mention that as BASE#'s grow expodentially, so will experiences, and hopefully knowledge. Hopefully the expodential growth of knowledge and experience will slow the rate of expodential grown in the list.

I wanted to mention that as BASE#'s grow expodentially, so will experiences, and hopefully knowledge. Hopefully the expodential growth of knowledge and experience will slow the rate of expodential grown in the list.
--------------------------------------------------------
Amen Bro. Regular jumping also shows this trend. Let's hope it carries over.

When I start in 1999, the fatality number was around 40, after 7 years, 60 more.
What s goin on??
My friend says : "Flying is not about good pilots, is about OLD pilots.."
Something is wrong outthere.
BASE jumping needs to be about beauty and flying again.
Lets put the % down!!!
Nico

If you look at my and Chris' graphs, you'll see that the fatality rate is not changing that much. It's just the number of jumpers is growing exponentially (actually, superexponentially).

It took 18 years for the first 50 deaths, just 7 for the next 50, and will take just 5-7 years for the next 100... etc.

So the answer to your question, "what's going on??" is, "Nothing. Math 101."

Yuri

Time and action brings experience. More jumpers means that there are more jumps beig made and more experiences occuring.

Instead of having 5 people attempting to create everything, you have 500 people creating. Hence, it takes less time for the experience to develop or if the same time is expended by each person, the collective experience pool is built at a much faster rate.

So, you are correct.

Another poster made the comparision with skydiving. BASE is a bit different in that the structure is much more fluid and the ability to control who learns what and who does what is a lot more difficult.

What do I mean? If we learn something new in skydiving, we can institute it via regulation and enforcement by qualified people. i.e. instructors can force people to follow rules set by parachuting organisations. There will always be holes in the system but 99% of people are covered.

BASE is a different beast. In theory, anyone can do almost anything they want, almost anywhere they want. So instead of forcing people to "be safe", the participants have to choose to "be safe". The sport also attracts a higher percentage of "free spirited anarchists" who increase the likelihood that incidents will happen.

So, it is true to say that the increasing numbers will increase the skill base and advance the sport. But it will also continue to attract a percentage that will not follow or heed the learnings. The other factor is that many members of todays time deficient society will not absorb all the learnings.

" So, it is true to say that the increasing numbers will increase the skill base and advance the sport."
.
NO. I do not agree. BASE survival skills and BASE equipment is at It's Peak.
-
"The other factor is that many members of today's time deficient society will not absorb all the learning's."
.
YES

Diluting BASE with fast growth along with higher population of jumpers will only water-down. More BASE jumpers from more new-found FJC's and Wanabe BASE instructors. More mass of instruction that is Not emphasizing the basic core of what is most important in survival for new jumpers who want or think they need to BASE jump.
More BASE instruction from an expanding BASE population. It's NEVER been so easy to become a BASE jumper. It's getting easier because there are few that will say NO to teach. If someone does say NO. There is another in a line that will say YES.
The basics of survival. The basics of Canopy skills. The basic weeding-out and judgment calls to be made for those that should not BASE or just hold off and wait. Is Diluted for mass quantity. The mandatory basics of Surviving BASE are gone. Never in BASE history have so many jumpers NEVER Seen, Packed or Jumped a 7-Cell Canopy. Never have so many known so Little of Basic Container and Canopy Rigging until they Wanted BASE. BASE Canopy accuracy and the Assessment of Object and Assessment of your primary and secondary landing area choices are nowhere to be found.
So I agree totally. with your statement. ..."many members of today's time deficient society will not absorb all the learning's."
.

That's because you're a crusty old timer.

With the ever increasing numbers, a reducing percentage but growing absolute amount will actually contribute to the sport in positive ways.

i.e. 10 years ago there was 500 jumpers of which 100 contributed to the technical advancement of the sport. Now there is 5000 jumpers and 200 people contributing to the sport. in 10 years it will be 20000 jumpers with 500 people contributing to the sport. Your assertion is that the gene pool is diluting. On average, this may be a correct assumption. But the total number of people contributing to the sport is increasing.

this statement:
" With the ever increasing numbers, a reducing percentage but growing absolute amount will actually contribute to the sport in positive ways."
.
" contribute to the sport in positive ways "
How ? & What ?
I feel that the advancement of BASE survival skills and BASE equipment is at It's Peak. There will be very little that will and that can be done to either from this point in time . Canopy advancement and BASE equipment will not change except for very small enhancements i.e. Venting, Trim or Cut for Canopy & small enhancements in equipment like WS & Tracking-Suits Or Container Systems i.e. Big-Grabs, Vented PC's or Container Systems designed for specific BASE purposes. Also of course there will always be the occasional gifted BASE jumper/athlete that makes the maximum most efficient use of what is taught of BASE survival techniques.
.
I feel that the words, "contribute to " will Not be a huge breakthrough or Advancement but "contribute to " Will and Must Be what is handed-down hand and mouth from BASE jumper to the ones wanting BASE.
.
" ...i.e. 10 years ago there was 500 jumpers of which 100 contributed to the technical advancement of the sport. Now there is 5000 jumpers and 200 people contributing to the sport. in 10 years it will be 20000 jumpers with 500 people contributing to the sport. Your assertion is that the gene pool is diluting. On average, this may be a correct assumption. But the total number of people contributing to the sport is increasing. "
.
This statement sounds good in theory but the "Natural Order of " applies also to BASE. "Dilution of the Species". species being BASE jumpers. Truly the word Dilution speaks for it self. Dilution is Weakening, Thinning, Watering Down, Darwinizing. That is " The Natural Order" and not of Things-to-Come but what is happening right at this moment.

The only way to Contribute to the Advancement of BASE and the only way to survive is to play a self-preserving role in what is handed down and taught as core belief of what is "BASE survival skills "
.
.

Haven't checked the numbers in years, but WOW - current L/D (ratio of BASE number count to BFL count) is about 7.3 (approx. 2000 divided by 274), down from 11 in 2006!

Back to 1983...

Hmm very interesting old thread...

Can we see a current graph pls Yuri.. seems like you made some very accurate predictions in 2006..

Only as I was also curious.

I had to eyeball the BASEnumber.org values for end of year BASE Number total, so not perfect, but satisfied an itch in my brain nonetheless.

Edit: Add Averages Graph
Edit: Add By Year Fatalities

I wish this had been the case for the last ten years but....

This...