Basejumper.com - archive

Imagine some hypothetical guy from the future shows up and says...

"You're going to die on one of your next N jumps!"

Loopholes and paradoxes aside, assume he is speaking the truth. What is the biggest N for which you would quit BASE?

---

Edited to add...

I realize this question can be confusing at first. So let's take it one step at a time to illustrate.

The guy comes up to you and says: "You're going to die on your next jump." Would you still jump? I doubt it. It'd be suicide.

Now the guy comes up to you and says: "You're going to die on your next jump, or the one following that."

Effectively this creates a fifty fifty chance you may die on your next jump. For all the talk from the fifty fifty crowd, I honestly don't believe there are many BASE jumpers that give themselves that low a success rate before they jump. So most would still quit...

Now the guy comes up to you and says: "You're going to die within the next ten jumps." Would you still jump now? You're given a one in ten chance that you're going to survive the next jump. It may be worth it, or not quite yet.

What if the guy says: "You're going to die within the next 10,000 jumps." Would you continue then?

So spend some time and think about where your sweet spot is. That's your N.

It's not important what your sweet spot is. It depends on the quality of the jumps and the quality of your life outside of BASE. It can also change over time. But if you happen to have a number, then realize the following.

If you have a low number, you're taking a rather suicidal approach to BASE. Apparently it's worth it to you. Great!

If you have a very high number, you're effectively assuming you're a good enough BASE jumper to survive at least N-1 jumps. That means if you pick a number that is higher than the highest number of jumps anybody has ever made, you are effectively saying you are a safer BASE jumper than every single person on the fatality list.

Granted, given that their fatalities preceded yours it gives you more information and arguably changes the probability dynamics. That's the whole point of learning from other people's mistakes.

Just sharing some food for thought here...

'100,000'. Because, at my core, I'm soft and always looking for a reason to quit anyway.

... Or, alternatively, for the reasons you and I have already discussed :).

Actually, I incorrectly voted '1'. But in addition to being soft, I'm also not that bright. So, you know, whatever...

 


I dont think it would be a numbers thing....I think of it as a experiance thing....would you quit after having say 5 "superterminal" jumps or 100 5 secound delay jumps....It's different for everyone...

But what if he said " your going to die on one of your next N jumps ...but if you quit now , you'll live 10 years longer but you'll die in a car accident caused by a f&&^ing drunk driver.....

You need to get jumping soon again....

chris

Ugh, here comes the drunk driver again. He's always just around the corner in these types of discussions. With all due respect; I think you're largely underestimating the risk of BASE and overestimating the risk of being in traffic if you bring up the drunk driver. Remember that typical involvement in traffic takes up more time than the typical time from exit to landing.

But even so, you're hypothetical question is valid. Die in the next hundred jumps or live another 10 years (regardless of cause of death)? Kinda depends on how enjoyable your life would be without BASE I suppose.

You have not lived in south florida.... If you dont see a couple of bodie bags on the road every week somethings wrong.... You have no idea how F**&ing stupid the drivers are here.... My kids love driving with me just so they can hear me say every 2 minutes 'F@*&ing Morron"

And no, i have not underestimated base... hucking yourself off any object...your dead...and then you save yourself.......sometimes....

I don't think that by your posts... that your life would be as enjoyable.... "i did say "AS" you seem to be having a pretty good time...

Just my 2 cents....

all the best Japp.......Chris

Jaap:

What if we are operating with the assumption that each subsequent burn in hurts the image of sport, effectively hurting the sport itself through increased attention, etc. If you don't quit, you then know you are or will hurt the sport out of your own selfishness? Is that acceptable? Also, if you are with your crew when the guy from the future tells you this, how many will keep jumping with you?

Yeah bro, I do plenty of things outside of BASE. I just don't talk about them here.

Edited to add: cue funny comment from Abbie here...

Those are very interesting questions! Thanks for asking, I hadn't considered these. That said, they answer a different question than the one I tried to make, namely; how much is your life worth to you?

And yes, that question is infinitely more complicated and doesn't lend itself to definitions. But poor approximations can still lead to interesting discussions.

The people voting one jump or "I won't quit" are essentially comitting suicide. The people voting 100,000 believe they have enough control on every BASE jump to outlive at least 10,000 jumps (the next smaller option for N). Both are bold claims.

For the record; I didn't vote. Yet. It's a difficult question.

I wouldn't quit.... Ever. Its already possible I could die on one of my next N jumps. That’s why you make every jump count and never take for granted the fact that we are able to take part in such an incredible sport.

Coco

Do you realize what you're saying? So the guy comes up to you and says: "You're going to die on your next jump."

You're still going to jump...

If I was told I would die on a BASE jump within the next 10,000...the number might as well be 1500 because I dont think I'll ever reach many more than 1500 anyway.
If I knew I would die BASE jumping I wouldn't jump anymore, it would take the fun out of it... I would always wonder..."is this the one?"
I'll take the chance but not the certainty of death.
~J

I think the guy who has offered the "N" jump posts here... Or at least reads this forum...

-smd7

That's a nugget.

Great stuff Jamie!

Jamie, that's seriously funny, because it reminds of something...

just over a week after my FJC, I was still in Twin Falls and on around my 40th jump, as I had climbed out and got ready to go, Johnny Utah is pointing his camcorder at me and recording:

Johnny - 'So, do you think this jump could be the one?'

me - 'which one?'

Johnny - 'the one that kills you'


My goal is to do 5000 or die trying.

I think desensitization, boredom and complacency are the biggest obstacles in the way.




we all have the certainty of death already whether we basejump or not

I don't know much about statistics or odds...

Is it possible to do 1000 jumps, each jump having a 1 in 10 chance of killing you, and not die?

I think it should be perfectly possible. The odds of getting killed on a jump are completely separate from your odds on the next jump.

Say you have a 1:2 chance of dying. You jump and don't die. On the next jump you still have the same 1:2 chance right? You're not guaranteed a fatality just beacause you survived the previous 1:2 jump...

right?

I'd say that if every BASE jump I did carried a 1:200 chance of killing me, I'd still jump about the same rate as I do.

the quote we all should live by is "have fun, don't die" if you dont feel like you shouldn't jump, dont. Its all up to oneself how you live your life and the chances you take. I think if you live it vicariously you will have a mishap. Or if you have a good thinking head on your shoulders, you should live as long as the good Lord will let you, wether it be 1 jump or 100,000, that's the chance you take.

IMO,
I would say it's almost like that, except cumulative. Just like if you flip a coin ten times, it IS possible to get 10 heads, but highly unlikely (around <5%). So as you do succeeding flips the chances of getting a tails increases, because through successive flips the chances of all head decreases. From this I would say each successive jump has a higher chance of being "the jump" than the previous one. For which Nth you state the cutoff of probability as being too high is a personal choice based on the individual value judgement of your opportunity costs involved with further enjoyment of life.
Or something like that.

Well Jaap.....YES. I'd still jump. Most would think that is crazy but for myself I don’t. I honestly don’t think I could live the next 50-70 years of my life and never jump again. I wouldn’t be happy. It would be like that character in Greek mythology that had to push a boulder up a hill for eternity only to have it roll back down every time he got close. It would be torture! I’d rather have one more jump than to spend years dreaming about it and wishing I could jump. Yes there are other thinks in life other than BASE that are fun but for me they are secondary.

I recently got into a local fire department and found out through a friend with contacts that if I were to get arrested and charged with trespassing I would get kicked out no questions asked while still in the academy (after I graduate that changes but I’d still be in some shit). But there is no way I could stop jumping for even a year to prevent loosing my job if I were to get busted. Even my parents laughed and were like there is no way in hell your gonna stop jumping. I’d rather risk it, keep jumping and be happy than to play it safe and be miserable. (But, I am only doing low bust risk jumps until I finish with TRFA.)

I think you’d really need to know more about why skydiving and BASE are so important to me and what it does for me to understand where I’m coming from but I’m not really gonna get into that.

Now for the hypothetical, if this guy says my next jump will be my last, I’d first tell him he is full of shit. Then I’m going pay Todd and Jimmy to inspect and rig me up a sorcerer and a belly mount reserve, jump it off a very “safe” object like NRGB, static line the first canopy from the catwalk, have about 3 boats in the river along with paramedics on the shore. If I still die well then, shit! I guess it was still meant to be.

Coco

Makes sense to me!

Coco

you forgot to add this option to the poll....

how about, "would rather shoot himself in the head then vote in this poll"....

type less, jump more

How many people have made 1000 jumps and are still in the sport?

26

if some asshole comes up to me and throws the "N" word in my face with the combination of the word die...

i'm gonna pistol whip him until he begs for his life.

then when the cops come... i jump.

If a guy told me that this is the jump that will get me killed I would smile and ask "how do you know that?" ... and then … put some money where your mouth is, I bet you a million dollar that I will survive.

Two reasons, it will make me rich and I am a basejumper … nobody really tells me what to do ;)

PerFlare
Team Bautasten

Where's the "I don't want to think about it" option?

If you toss a coin 99,999 times and it comes up heads every time, the odds of it being heads on the next toss are still 50/50.

'Statistics are like a lamp post to a drunken man - they're used for leaning on and not illumination'

Al

If the probability of throwing heads is 0.5 (50% or 1 in 2), then that is the probability of throwing heads on any one coin toss.

The probability of throwing heads two times in row is: 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25 (1 in 4).

The probability of throwing heads 1000 times in a row is: 0.5^1000 = 9.33263618503219 x 10-302

The probability of throwing heads 99 999 times in a row is: 0.5^99999 = so small that both an Engineering Calculator and Excel rounded it to zero

And if you already have 998 in a row your probability of reaching 1000 is now 0.25. That seems like the bit most people have a problem with.

Agreed.

But the probability of you having gotten to 998 heads in a row is 1 in 3.7331 x 10 ^ 301 , which if I were to write it in this format: p = x in y, it would look like this:

1 in 37331000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

So does it really matter that the probability to get to 2 heads in a row would be 0.25 if you would never get to 998 in a row in the first place due to the ridiculously low probability?

So what's the probability of throwing 10 heads followed by a tail then a further 10heads?

answer : just fuck right off twat i'm trying to get my head around what to do if this opens with a 90 right.



ian

that's the reason we don't jump from N's

sorry to say its a shitty poll
first off if a BASEjumper dont trust his own instinct he/she shouldnt jump.

If a person walks up to me and tells me that im gonna die on the next jump(whith out taking the jump into aspect,and taking its a person might not knowing about BASE)..
I would ask him to make a bet whith me.. if i die he can take my mony in my pocket if i live he buys me a pint..

do i need to say that i voted"im not gonna quit"

Hi, correct me if I'm wrong Jaap. But I think that what you’re trying to say is that, do enough base jumps and eventually it will bite you in the arse. Knowing this where do you draw the line, how many jumps are you prepared to do?

I think it is realistically possible to due 100,000 + jumps of the Perrine and be fine. You would just need to take a bit of care, not get cocky and maintain your gear.

I also think that if you do 1000 jumps off an under hung, 300ft cliff, you will be lucky to get away without a cliff strike and therefore lucky to be alive.

I think that there are only a small number of people with over a 1000 base jumps (26). I think in 10 years time a 1000 jumps will not be a remarkable achievement and there will be 100’s of jumpers to reach this level. I think the reason why there are so few people with over a 1000 jumps is down to the amount of active jumpers in the past over the last 10 years. Just how many people were actually jumping that much.

So I think getting back to your poll, it's really down to the individual person on how risky base is. If you push it hard, you should be aware of the risks and take on board that if you keep pushing it hard, you are lightly to get into trouble.
Make the right choice’s, aim to go long not hard, and I think that there is no reason you can't jump for the next 50 years and have every chance of making it.

George

Course it doesn't. It's just the bit that people don't understand when they say things like "Because you haven't been injured for ages it makes you far more likely to die on your next jump.".

I honestly don't give a toss about stats because they can't tell you what's going to happen in the real world, whereas some people seem to think they control whats going to happen.

ha ha first saw your post after i responded Jaap.. i like your style Per

I think it depends on how high you value your jumping.

Imagine this:

After the horrific accident with the space-shuttle...had somebody come up to you, and offered you a ride into space in the next shuttle, even though there was a 99% chance it would go wrong again.

What would you say?

I know I would take my chances...and a lot of people in here probably would....does that mean I'm crazy?

this post shows great formatting skills!

it appears to be a rather cumbersome attempt to analyze the risk/reward ratio for each jumper (a.k.a. cost benefit analysis...). those choosing a lower value are signalling the importance of jumping. those choosing a higher number are admitting they have priorities outside of BASE (such as a family, job, etc.).

everyone must choose their own path through life...

WRONG

I just dont belive that people can tell when i die..
I do belive i will survive each jump i make whith out injuryes no matter the bust fact im not braking bones just like that..

Its up to me to judge when to jump and when to back off. no person will ever beabel to tell me so(taking non BASEjumpers but "angels or gosts or what ever you should call that).

A jumper can say "dude that aint clever you gonna kill yourself on that" then ill reconsidder if i should do the jump. but if example my mom says im gonna die then i will estimate that my experience for that subject is bigger than hers therefore she cant tell if it can be done..

I has 2 kids of my own a lovely wife anf´d her 2 kids,loosing any of thouse would be the worst for me ever that inkludes killing myself.. but none of them can say if i should do a jump or not..

One doesn't have to be religious to engage in philosophical thought experiments.

philosophical thought experiments.
philosophical thought experiments.
philosophical thought experiment
philosophical through experience

Not that many anyway. Others retired before rolling the dice 1000 times? Or are too young to have rolled the dice 1000 times? Or...

The dice is not exactly one in six, but is not one in a million either.

PS. By rolling the dice I mean that there is alway an element of unpredictability and not that it's all crapshoot.

Jaap described in great detail two close calls he had in 82 jumps. It's close to a 100 option in his poll and rather far from the 1000 option.

That's why it is a 'hypothetical' guy from the future. Lots of people believe BASE jumping is suicide and yet you engage in it. Don't let your beliefs stop you from thinking outside the box...

I would kill the guy who talks that smack to me!

which is why they mostlikely says it will kill us by the next jump..

try doing it all 180degree
Now BASEjumping is a national sport but football is for thouse weirdows think about them they can get hurt running after that stupied ball,whats the meaning...

BASEjumping is only a extreme sport as most people dont do it..

look at that island(cant rember the name) were people has bungeejumped for decades now and then people is getting injuryed or killed but as all of them is doing it its not that bad,i even saw a 3 years old kid jumping off aprox 30ft just like that...

I do belive that if a person makes a statement about a jump will kill you you has 2 things to considder

#1 is this person familiar whith gear the object you etc etc

or
#2 is the person a "outsider" not knowing about this sport and its risk

to me the #3 'hypothetical' guy from the future does not exist therefore i put him into group #2

I might die on that jump but not as he said i would so.


okay...
in case this guy show up how do i then tell him different from group 1 and 2 up there,im sure quikly can tell if he belong to group 1,in that case i will reconsidder the jump.
But i cant tell if is a futurboy or just a person that knows im gonna die..

Im not having a box,but my box is limited by the walls i know and see.
In case this futurboy showes up as an angel whith wings and stuff i either
1 seek help as it aint tru
or
2 admit that ill start belive.. if i do so i promise i wont do the jump