Basejumper.com - archive

The more I jump, the scarier it gets. Funny how that works. Anyway, Nick's recent post about the amount of jumps being made every year got me thinking about this one.

Disregarding the many different approaches people take in base and grosly generalizing a sport for which there aren't enough statistics to even create useful conclusions, I'll try this anyway.

Have you ever thought about the odds that you can survive in this sport? It matters a lot if you're mostly a potato bridge jumper or you prefer doing double gainers off of 200ft underhung cliffs, but have you ever tried to come up with a number for yourself?

Having put about 10 minutes of guestimating into it, I think there are about 30.000 base jumps being made every year. The past five or so years, the average fatality rate has been around six per year. 30.000 over 6 means that for every 5000 jumps, one person dies.

To stress again; it's a statistic that involves a number we don't really know and every base jumper has different comfort zones which puts them at different amounts of risk.

Let's for now wipe all that aside and disregard that base jumping involves a lot of skill. Imagine, hypothetically, that base jumping is like Russian roulette and that on every jump you are just rolling the dice.

Given the above; one in every five thousand jumps somebody dies, would you still base jump? Or do you consider yourself that one special base jumper that is better than the average jumper? Are you a base jumper that is safer than the rest and will manage to stay ahead of the pack? Do you have the special ingredient? What do you believe your odds are?

With my limited amount of experience and extremely short amount of time in the sport I am in no position to comment on this. But holy crap is this shit dangerous. Let's be careful people. Know what you're getting into!

I read someone say "I give myself 50/50 on each jump" and I have to admit, I give myself these odds for either an injury or death each jump......... it keeps me scared and keeps me focused............

and besides, when you are really scared, you land with a bigger buzz!!

I love having vertigo and giving myself these odds as i walk away from each and every jump REALLY buzzing! no matter what jump I am doing!

You should sell insurance.

vertigo my ass...i get bored with people saying they have it when its actually a medical condition...

Definition: The sensation of movement; a sensation as if the external world were revolving around an individual (objective vertigo) or as if the individual were revolving in space (subjective vertigo). It is a result of a disturbance of equilibrium. It can be caused by middle ear disease; toxic conditions caused by silicylates, alcohol or the antibiotic streptomycin; sunstroke; postural hypotension; or toxemia caused by such things as food poisoning or infections.
Pronunciation: ver-ti'go

Also Known As: dizziness; lighheadedness; giddiness

Common Misspellings: vertego

Examples: Bob experienced vertigo when he got up from bed this morning and fell.


Macs definition:see picture

ok, sorry I dont fit the medical version - what I mean is I am fucking shit scared of heights!

 
>>I think it's just the nature of the beast. The odds are, something bad is going to happen if you do this long enough. Your friends will start getting crippled or killed, as you yourself may be. It might be right up close and personal, or you may just get a phone call. I suppose the trick is to use your brain to objectively evaluate what you can and can't do, and see how it matches up with the jump your attempting. And then roll the dice.
I think BR said it best:

Or if you take the Kjerag statistics:

Out of 18'353 Jumps there where 8 fatalities, which makes 1 fatality every 2294 jumps and 76 accidents which makes 1 accident every 241 jumps.

Or my own experience: The 2nd time I went BASE Jumping I witnessed a near fatal accident (heal fast DX!!!)

Yes, I agree, this sport is dangerous!

I've thought about this quite a lot before. Consider the following to be the thoughts of someone who focusses maybe too-much on semantics. I believe that if we can make our meaning as clear as possible, most problems just solve themselves.

I think if someone honestly believed they had a 50/50 chance of dying doing something, there are only a handful of (possibly suicidal) people who would actually do it. I don't mean to speak for the people who make these statements, but maybe only to explore the question a little bit.

I've heard lots of people say, "It's one thing to talk about doing a BASE jump, but it's a whole other thing actually to do it." Anyone who has jumped, I think, feels this. I propose that, "It's one thing to talk about having 50/50 odds of survival, but it's a whole other thing actually to put yourself in a situation which gives you those odds, strictly speaking." For someone to convince me that they know what 50/50 odds are (and are therefore capable of making that comparison with a BASE jump), I would like to see them at least once have pulled the trigger in a game of russian roulette, with half the chambers full. Otherwise, I think what we have here is a misunderstanding of how impossibly bleak strict 50/50 odds of survival is.

I don't think this stops at what we would usually think of as "bleak" odds. If someone honestly believes they have 1 in 1000 odds of dying on a particular jump, I would encourage them to find something akin to a 1000-chamber revolver with which to calibrate their guess.

I want to be clear that I am not talking about rolling some dice and saying, "I would have died if that one came up a seven." That would be like walking up to an exit point and saying, "I could have done it." What we're talking about here is a test where, when you've pulled the trigger, there is no question you know what those odds feel like.

Nor is the most important part of the experiment the moment when you pull the trigger. What does it feel like to anticipate something like that? What does it feel like if you live? What's it like to know that you put that much on the line for statistical chance?

I'll likely never know, because after giving it a lot of thought, I've come to think that I will never play russian roulette.

Michael

If I understand your post correctly, the reason you do base jump and you don't play Russian roulette is because you believe that in base you are more in control of things?

I guess that is what most base jumpers think. Because we prepare, pack, check our gear, do the jump ourselves, etcetera, we think we can cheat the odds (if there are any) and stick around long enough.

I wonder if maybe we're all just fooling ourselves though. Surely some base jumpers are safer than others, but the game is pretty deadly and on a long enough timeline everybody's survival rate drops to zero.

Jaap, on a long enough timeline everyone's survival rate drops to zero. Not just BASE jumpers.

Michael

Obviously.

But what about my question; are we just fooling ourselves? Are we as much in control as we'd like to believe?


Dude, if you ever start a cult, let me know. I'll join it.

These odds would be pretty easy to live with, but I'd be fooling myself if I believed I could apply them to myself in reference to BASE. The 50/50 odds of injury or death, though ostensibly extreme, seem more realistic.

if I were to make a wild probability calculation from Jaap's suggested numbers, since I'm fairly active and I've done 116 jumps in the last 10 months, which works out to 139 per year:

the wild part is assuming I could survive 5000 jumps before it's 'the one'; at my present rate that would take 36 years and I'd be 68 when I smack in - I like those odds and I'd be perfectly content giving up a decade or two in a retirement home for the experiences that 5000 jump would hold !

using Mikki's numbers:
2294 jumps, 16.5 years and 48.5 years when I get my place on the list....

looking at those calculations and comparing to my short experience in this sport, I would say Jaap's numbers are far too optimistic and Mikki's numbers look closer to reality for time in the sport, but still vey optimistic for jump numbers and age at death

injury, of course, lies much closer down the road that is quickly becoming more travelled

why do we still do it?
-some are too young or just too stupid to really understand the risks and price of participation
-some are really good at denial
-some would rather not live if they didn't feel alive
-some are addicted to the experience

my targets are to jump as much as I'd like until I'm 65 or so, I have never made peace with the idea of getting old and I've never been really excited about dying in my sleep either, it's a once-in-a-lifetime experience, so you might as well make it interesting...

that makes me sound like someone who've never even skinned their knee, but the truth is that I've seen the inside of a life-flight helicopter and it's made me as appreciative of the value of life as it has of it's fleeting nature

I do not take unneccesary risks as life is too precious to lose that way, but I do consider some risks as neccesary to make life worthwhile.

Calculating odds based on raw fataility numbers is somewhat misleading, because if you look at the list, a large number of the fatalities... especially in the past couple of years... revolve around the nature of the object, site conditions and the jumper's experience level.

There is always going to be some amount of "random black death-ness" at work on any jump. But I think as a general principle, odds to the person jumping in TF is very different from the person jumping in Switzerland.

Add aerials, wingsuits etc into the mix and the odds change yet again.

There is a nice article on the ABA's website that discusses risk assessment and how changing factors change risk. You can check it out here.

All told, I'm very much aware that something can go wrong on any given jump. That's what keeps the fear level up and keeps me from getting complacent.

I guess my question would be, "How close are we to 4,999?"

I was going to write something but Ken Millers risk assesment hits it right on the nail. The equipment , setup and simplicity is far better than skydiving gear. Take a look at the Fatality list....You dont see equipent failure as a cause of death. It's you...Your body position, your decision to jump ,your pack job, and of most....your brain controlling your actions. I think it is fair to assume that you can do this for along time. I see a fatality on the freeway near my house every week. I travel the same freeway every day. Does that mean i am still hear because i have better odds or does it mean i am more alert,pay more attention and know at what time of the day my risk increases and adjust to the conditions where as a driver who never adapts to conditions has a better chance to be a statistic. It's a tough question that everyone has there own theory.

ok i lied....i wrote something.....

The counter got reset twice the last few weeks.

Jaap.....There is no counter....you are the counter...dont start giving your brain any ideas about how to start counting.....

Your brain only does what it has been told or taught to do.....dont start now...

Obviously that was meant in a figure-of-speech kind of reply to the 4999 comment.

I realize that in any chaotic process there are going to be runs of occurences that are only explicable by randomness.



Better not get me started on probability theory. Before you know it I'll bring out Bayes and start rambling about the Monty Hall gimmick.

It's interesting that you should interpret the results this way, because I had exactly the opposite reaction when (some years ago) I ran the same numbers. I think the ages you calculate are working out fine -- that statistically, even an active jumper (100 jumps per year) has a half-life of thirty years or more jumping.

Why does it seem like it should be so much shorter? Because most of us get squeamish at odds that are much lower than we would expect. I think Nick put it really well here http://www.dropzone.com/...ring=goober;#1551590:


I think most of us know this, and instinctively keep things pretty safe even if we're telling ourselves that this one is 50/50.

To address Jaap's original question... I think that, at the end of the day, the statistics are irrelevant. Not because I've got such m4d sk1llz that statistics don't apply to me, but for this reason... Either I will die BASE jumping (in which case the odds were 100% all along), or I won't (in which case they were zero). It's small-number statistics at its finest.

Anyway, how (and even when) I will die seems somehow small in relation to the fact that, sooner or later, I will die -- I try not to get too hung up on the details.

Zennie's comments are very similar to my thoughts or better yet justifications. As fine and visible as the line is in BASE, there is still room to be closer or further away than others. I feel many of the people on the list were pushing limits that I'm currently not interested in pushing. I also believe that most people who have been hurt or killed BASE jumping know they were pushing beyond where they had gone before. I could rationally explain this with numerous examples, but that may just be me trying to convince myself of something.

It's human nature to only hear what you want and to look for justification into why your thoughts are correct.

With BASE I feel very close to the edge. I don't have enough experience to fully trust my gear and how I packed it. I feel like I can deal with most situations correctly, but there are many events in BASE jumping that I haven't experienced or want to for that matter.

I do consider that this could be the one and think about the people in my life and where it might leave them. And if I'm not comfortable with those thoughts I don't jump. That's what made me walk down twice a month or so ago.

I don't think I'll die BASE jumping, but I realize it can happen. As for "the odds" when my feet leave the exit point I plan 100% on surviving the jump.

Jaap, Youve just discovered the secret of life....every day,different day,day every, day different......

As growing up surfing....we always new that random swells where just runs of occurences....there was no real reason....we just enjoyed them as they came...

what about mine?

Seriously though, I feel the same way as you. I get "more scared" for lack of a better phrase after every jump. That does not necessarily mean I am scared, just maybe that my senses are heighted in that I am more alert and am aware of more on each jump.

It seems that I here or feel something new on every jump. Be it hearing the PC inflate or whatnot.

Kind of a funny thing I noticed about myself....
When I started BASE jumping I stopped riding my motorcycle as much for a few months.....It started to scare me more .I feel it is safer doing 1 simple BASE jump than going to work and back in the city.
ofcourse I'm afraid of heights which makes things quite interesting in the logic part of my brain when I think about these types of things.
~J

It's no different than what we do in our own simple days and lives..Some get in a car and drive with a purpose.

Some get in a car , talk on the cell put on makeup..then pretend they are driving when in fact they are the closest thing to a statistic than they realize..

Some get a small japanese car trick it out ,nitrous, hopped up engine, to race ,when at 30mph impact, you can die in that car.

It makes no sense other than they....statistic multiplyers, are pushing everyone limits around them..

in a broad sense...if have to try to put it in to numbers...it would be the same as 2 guys...

One base jumping and the other driving next to the stupid woman not paying attention,talking on the cell phone about nothing,and putting on makeup to boot at 6:00 driving 70 miles an hour down the freeway about to miss her exit......

I think its all relative.......

I first want to say I'm getting a lot of good feedback from the poll question in the other thread. Thanks, everyone . . .

On what Jaap expressed – here's my thoughts . . .

There was definitely a time when BASE jumpers figured their odds as even, live or die, on each jump. But soon after I started I noticed a difference in some jumper's approach to BASE. I was always (and still am) the type that can make road trip (no matter how long, or expensive) make a single BASE jump, and then sit around the rest of the day with a beer feeling like the king of the world. The worst accident I ever had wasn't a result of zigging when I should have zagged. It was bowing to peer pressure and not listening to the little man inside that was warning me off . . . it's knowing where the wall of your own personal risk level resides as once you go beyond it you aren't firing on all cylinders.

I do think it has a lot to do with when you started BASE jumping. For me it's a time when we realized not that much is known and every jump is sort of an experiment. A new jumper today can get the wrong idea. Because BASE has been around for awhile they can think it's all figured out, and they just have to get up to speed.

Carl Boenish said BASE jumps aren't to be gulped down like skydives, and that's always stuck with me. Even though BASE jumps are harder to come by when I started, I could have pushed it harder, but it seemed reckless to do so. It's the reason it took me five or six years to make a hundred BASE jumps.

It's all still confusing to me. I'm stuck in that coffin corner of believing being very current makes you safer, yet the more you play the game, the more chances you take. It's the reason a thousand skydives can allow you to be blasé, when a thousand BASE jumps won't. I keep flashing on the line from the movie "War Games" when the computer says, "The only way to win the game is not to play."

I'm also struck by viewing the recent Aussie "60 Minutes" piece. We are still trying to explain BASE jumping the same exact way we did 25 years ago. It's still, "you have to do it in order to understand it." Meanwhile a whooping it up Miles (whose daring I have a certain degree of respect for, in a funny way) comes across as juvenile to those minds we wish to change. To me it says we have more in common with the past than we think.

Most BASE jumpers come into the sport big guns and after a few years of high activity they start to slow down. By the time they get to the point where they can be a bit more articulate about the sport the MTV factor kicks in. No one wants to hear from you as you aren't under thirty and hip enough. This dooms our public persona to infantile because it's the younger of us that seeks out the limelight.

BASE jumping, in my opinion, is as dangerous now as it was twenty five years ago. Any gains made in gear and technique will always be somewhat canceled out by pushing the boundaries of what's possible. We used to say being a pioneer was much more dangerous than being a follower. But, now the pioneers are doing such outrageous things the followers are getting hurt and killed trying to imitate them.

I know one thing for sure. Modern fixed object parachuting is just 27 years old, we have a long way to go, and all the time in the world to get there . . . don't take BASE jumping for granted, and don't strive to get too comfortable with it. I hear too many saying they feed off the fear. But, with today's frequency of jumps it's too easy for that to become the addiction when it was actually jumping that got you hooked . . .

NickD
BASE 194

nice...

My friend's husband was killed in a car wreck just a few hours ago. He was driving a street he knew well, and drove every day....in fact it was basically his driveway. He did everything right, but that didn't help him when the other driver wasn't paying attention.

While doing something safely may help from becoming a statistic, it does not completely prevent it.

The general population does a lot of dangerous things without thinking twice. Base jumpers think about jumps over and over and manage everything they have any control over. This does improve your chances, but they are still chances. Black death will always play a roll, just as it has in our everyday lives. Someone might get shot walking to their car, but we don't blame them for leaving their house.

I'm going to say the odds really are 0/100 because that is life. What we are are talking about in this thread is the "when" and the "how." It's my thought that if base is part of your life, then it will be part of your death. How directly it will be part of it is the unknown.

I give YOU thouse odds aswell WHEN YOU go jumping Your doing it all wrong and your shaking like a elephant that got the flu...
I cant deside if your shaking is as of all the fat on your body as it cant stop the movements,but danm i cant belive that you get some onheaddings by thouse unstable exits
and thats when you scream like a girl and makes us all worryed

Actualy if you give yourself 50/50 chance to get hurt or die,i then think your thinking it a wrong way...

IF you want to calculate 1 jump you need all facts and then get it together..
Not having calculated it but i tend to think its more like 15-25% to get injuryed and aprox 5% to die if you jump in ideal condtions.
Dont forget that dooing not ideal jumps ofcourse will incresse the %,and then you´ll need to find out what ideal conditions are on the object you want to jump...

Hell before you calculated that i have done 2 jumps

PS. before this post Mac used to be my freind,so at the point im hitting "post reply" its not a personal insult at Mac.Just making fun at him as he loves it that way

Mac stop limping and do some jumps.. lazy boy....

Taking the odds of dying on a particular jump as 5%, your odds of living through your first 100 jumps would be about 0.6%. If the odds of getting injured are 15%, then your odds of getting through your first 100 jumps unscathed are about 1/100,000 of 1%. In ideal conditions.

I keep seeing these relatively larger perentages thrown out there, but I really don't think we have an appreciation for how big a 5% chance of dying is. That's what the russian roulette experiment is about. Imagine pulling the trigger on a revolver with 20 chambers and one bullet (okay, big revolver). If the chamber is empty, you live. If it's occupied, you die. No, "Well, maybe if I'm quick enough." That's the end of your life. You will never walk out of that room.

When we say that we have a 5% chance of dying, we aren't talking about a 5% chance of a 180 or something. By the time we hit the "positive" result in that statistical experiment, we've already used up all of our options. We are categorically dead. There is a 100% chance we will not be going out for drinks with the crew later. We won't be watching our own lives, and the lives of those around us, unfold. The ride, for us, is over.

If you seriously think you have a 5% chance of death on each jump, maybe it's time to quit. Because you almost certainly will not live to see your next 100 jumps.

Michael

" That's the end of your life. You will never walk out of that room."



who plays russian roulette inside? sheesh.

I did not say my reasons and figures were accurate, but it is what I personally give myself, If you think you are going to walk away from each jump then you have to rethink, you will have a jump where you are injured, or worse. If I expect each jump I have a chance of 50% that I could be injured on this jump then I stay more alert and scare myself................

I find this approach healthy, not accurate........ and its just a personal thing, not everyones "cup o' tea"


and no its not my fat shaking - its the fucking muscles after climbing up a ladder!!!

McLazy (as known in several countries)

Calvin would be so proud...

Sorry to hear about your friend.....

That really just sucks......

[reply
My friend's husband was killed in a car wreck just a few hours ago.
ouch.
hope all find the strength they need.

Hey Japp....Here is a post from a pretty cool site i thought is very relevant ...



Take a look: http://www.rockclimbing.com/topic/88241

Just when i thought it couldnt get any better...... Let take our kids base jumping......

So the obvious lesson is make 4999 BASE jumps then retire.

I know what you mean mate i just wanted to pick on you...
Keep your phone open tonite you might get a tandem

we need to be clear about % when i say 5% i mean on 1 jump not 100

5% of 100 = 5

I think i survive each time,if not i climb down...
So you could say i climb down 5% of my jumps,now crak that one that way i can keep going forever