Basejumper.com - archive

 

I'm going to give the BASE Fatality List a make over soon, not so much in content, just going for a cleaner look. However, since the number is getting up there, I do want to add some perspective.

I know in the end this will be a guess on everyone's part, but I'm interested in what everyone thinks, and who knows, a consensus may point us in the right direction . . .

You can break out your calculators if you want, or just make your choice from the gut.

NickD
BASE 194

i made about 60 last year

who knows what is avg.

I think with more legal sites opening like TF, there are over 22k easily

Hey Nick, why don't you get various individual's jump numbers for the year and extrapolate from that data?

I'd have to know how many to sample to get a good result. To know that, I'd need to know how many active BASE jumpers there are in the world. And that's a tough one too . . .

If you hit the max number on the above poll please include in a post what you think the number might be.

NickD
BASE 194

Although I have only posted a few times, I have been reading posts now for quite some time.

You guys could really kill about 10 birds with one swift kick.

It seems that there has been a common thread (whether the connection has been made by others I am not sure).

It might do some good to have one long confidential poll that combines entries from other sites.

Rather than ask everybody to guess, why not have a poll similar to this but have something to check for each user (registered or not) that lists the number of jumps from each object and legal v.s illegal. during a 12 month period and then lifetime. In addition to the skydiving training that preceded.

Let it run for a few months (have a moderator keep it at the top) put another one on each other site, state some rules about only taking one poll.

Send some emails to friends get them to fill it out. Have them forward the email etc...

I have seen many concerns over the past that could all be answered within a few months of this.

Keep a moderator on this to keep it confidential and then throw it into a program that will spit out every statistic you need.

If you get a few thousand entries you will have some solid data worthy of publishing (assuming it is pretty enough), who knows, you may find it is worse than you thought, but I doubt it.

The deaths and injuries may have to be entered by somebody manually.

For those who care to keep the discipline looking clean, some true statistics might help. It will also be essential in the future when BASE becomes bigger and more prevalent than it already is.

A lawyer may also have a bit more fighting power (from a great deal of past experience) if the statitics can be shown.

I am sorry if this has already been done before I came to this sight and I am stating the obvious. I know I have read a few moderator/experienced posters argue about how many jumps have been made legal vs. illegal so I don't imagine that these statistics exist.

I must say when I was a little tike I first went skydiving at a place that had some statistics, as soon as I saw that I was more likely to win the Lotto AND get struck by lightning before I would die skydiving, I was signing in the dotted line. Although I have won a 4/6 and been struck by lightning while driving:)

I chose "over 22000." Assuming that there are 2000 active BASE jumpers in the world, that would be 11 jumps per year, on average.

I reckon that there are more than 2000 active BASE jumpers worldwide. I also reckon that they average more than 11 jumps per year.

Simple mathematics...

Any idea how many jumps in Perrine each year? A few 1000?

About 3000 in Kjerag per year.

This is the roughest estimate. There are probably about 1000 active BASE jumpers worldwide.

Probably the annual average is around 50 jumps hence probably 50000 jumps worldwide.

Lots of probably...

 

Here in AZ we have about 2-3 jumpers averaging around 100,and 1 maybe 2 between 100-150,and probably only 1 going over 150.

I made 60+... wheres that put me

Lazy....

i take 100 at a year unless i break a leg

without a decent sample its hard to assume.

I know people who are jumpers who will make 10 a year, I know peope that will do 150 a year.

Saying there are 1000 or 2000 active in the world is misleading. What do you deem active?

In my eyes, active is jumping weekly or bi-weekly or monthly.

There are people out there that only ever do trips to legal objects, there are people that only ever do one jump a month off their local. There are so many variables in this sort of question it will be impossible to nail down any worthwhile data.

This is like the governement trying to estimate how many illegal immigrants are living in the country or how many people are taking Ecstacy each weekend - there is no real way to sample the data accuratly with any decent confidence level in the results.

I would not even try and hazard a guess on how many jumpers there are in the world, never mind how many jumps are being made.

Maybe get people to estimate the number of jumpers in their country / local / area and then build up a more accurate picture of how many jumpers there are in the world?

Just my worthless thoughts on it...............

Its not a waste of time. Incomplete data is better than no data at all.

Think of advances in parachuting / equipment technology. The manufacturers have incomplete data which they hypothesize and test prior to making changes, which they test pratically.

Doing it by sector is probably the best way to do it. Get a world wide coordinator / moderator /etc. This could be a person or committee. Then select individuals or committees to coordinate particular regions of the world. They will have local contacts who will know . . . . . This will give a guide as to what is going on. And yes, you will NEVER get a 100% accurate figure. But there are not many areas in life where you can get 100% accuracy because data is always hidden, massaged, collected incorrectly, not provided, etc.

incomplete data can be really skewed depending on the sample you are getting the data from. Drawing it from the net is already going to give you misleading figures. There is no way you are going to get a reasonable confidence level with data drawn from the net from a handful of BASE jumpers with their own personal thoughts.

As you say, drawing data from sectors and having a control over it will draw more realistic results (although not 100% (as this is impossible unless you ask everyone) you can still draw a reasonable confidence level from it as long as you get a good set of data... (asking Americans to estimate how many jumpers there are in the UK and how many jumps they are doing is worthless, as would be a UKer doing the same on the US scene)

I think this is actually doable, and more accurate than posting a poll on DZ dot com where the results are going to actually voted on by people that dont even know many jumpers or even jump themselves?, perhaps someone would like to take this on?

just my additional worthless thoughts...........